--- title: "Double-Tap Dilemma case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Double-Tap Dilemma ($59.10) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.33% over 24 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef3 rendered: 2026-11-12T05:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Double-Tap Dilemma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef3) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Double-Tap Dilemma A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef3?window=all) Price · $59.10 · 98,459 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $53.19 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.33% · 24 openings, odds method Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 24 openings · below min since tracking started · 24 openings · below min -0.5% 133.0% 266.5% **Small sample.** 24 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef3?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef3?window=7d) | 12 | 112.10% ±153.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef3) | 24 | 89.33% ±108.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef3?window=all) | 24 | 89.33% ±108.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Couple Of Unpolished Pearls (Organic Gemstone) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/couple-of-unpolished-pearls-organic-gemstone) | 1 in 400 | $2,600 4,331,600 BUX | 12.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Prism (Platinum) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-platinum) | 1 in 57 | $599 997,934 BUX | 19.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Mystical Monolith (Moonstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mystical-monolith-moonstone) | 1 in 33 | $240 399,840 BUX | 13.5% | 3 | 0.7 | — | | [Pendant (Platinum) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-platinum) | 1 in 29 | $235 391,510 BUX | 15.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Tiny tiara (Diamond) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tiny-tiara-diamond) | 1 in 18 | $149 248,234 BUX | 15.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Pearl Prism Pendant other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pearl-prism-pendant) | 1 in 17 | $76.00 126,616 BUX | 8.6% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× | | [Pendant (Pearl) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-pearl) | 12.0% | $35.00 58,310 BUX | 7.9% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [Shards Of Sapphire (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/shards-of-sapphire-gemstone) | 68.0% | $5.63 9,375 BUX | 7.2% | 16 | 16.3 | 0.98× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef3) [Pendant (Platinum) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-platinum) Hidden $59.10 98,459 BUX $235 391,510 BUX 3.98x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Shards Of Sapphire (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/shards-of-sapphire-gemstone) Hidden $59.10 98,459 BUX $5.63 9,375 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Mystical Monolith (Moonstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mystical-monolith-moonstone) Hidden $59.10 98,459 BUX $240 399,840 BUX 4.06x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Pendant (Pearl) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-pearl) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $59.10 98,459 BUX $35.00 58,310 BUX 0.59x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Shards Of Sapphire (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/shards-of-sapphire-gemstone) Hidden $59.10 98,459 BUX $5.63 9,375 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-07 12:26 UTC [Shards Of Sapphire (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/shards-of-sapphire-gemstone) Hidden $59.10 98,459 BUX $5.63 9,375 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-07 12:26 UTC [Mystical Monolith (Moonstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mystical-monolith-moonstone) Hidden $59.10 98,459 BUX $240 399,840 BUX 4.06x 2026-11-07 12:26 UTC [Shards Of Sapphire (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/shards-of-sapphire-gemstone) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $59.10 98,459 BUX $5.63 9,375 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-07 12:26 UTC [Shards Of Sapphire (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/shards-of-sapphire-gemstone) Hidden $59.10 98,459 BUX $5.63 9,375 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Shards Of Sapphire (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/shards-of-sapphire-gemstone) Hidden $59.10 98,459 BUX $5.63 9,375 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $59.10 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Special 0.3% Classified 75.3% Covert 3.0% Restricted 3.5% Industrial Grade 6.0% Consumer Grade 12.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt