--- title: "Metropolitan Mysteries case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Metropolitan Mysteries ($33.81) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 48.93% over 34 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef4 rendered: 2026-11-12T06:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Metropolitan Mysteries](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef4) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Metropolitan Mysteries A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef4?window=all) Price · $33.81 · 56,328 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $30.43 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 48.93% · 34 openings, odds method Variance · 8.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 34 openings · below min since tracking started · 34 openings · below min -0.5% 115.8% 232.0% **Small sample.** 34 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef4?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef4?window=7d) | 12 | 62.47% ±168.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef4) | 34 | 48.93% ±100.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef4?window=all) | 34 | 48.93% ±100.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Miniature Mythril Shield (Mythril) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/miniature-mythril-shield-mythril) | 1 in 100 | $999 1,664,334 BUX | 32.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Pieces Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pieces-of-oak-wood) | 1 in 13 | $106 176,000 BUX | 26.0% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× | | [Fountain (Fluorite) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/fountain-fluorite) | 10.0% | $30.00 49,980 BUX | 9.9% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.32× | | [Zen Garden (Zirconium) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/zen-garden-zirconium) | 10.0% | $28.00 46,648 BUX | 9.2% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× | | [Gauntlet (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/gauntlet-garnet) | 11.0% | $24.00 39,984 BUX | 8.7% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× | | [Sarcophagus (Silver) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sarcophagus-silver) | 13.0% | $13.40 22,324 BUX | 5.7% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.62× | | [Knuckles (Brass) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/knuckles-brass) | 13.5% | $12.00 19,992 BUX | 5.3% | 8 | 5.1 | 1.56× | | [Knot (Nickel) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/knot-nickel) | 34.0% | $2.10 3,499 BUX | 2.3% | 12 | 12.9 | 0.93× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef4) [Pieces Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pieces-of-oak-wood) Hidden $33.81 56,328 BUX $106 176,000 BUX 3.12x 2026-11-10 15:12 UTC [Fountain (Fluorite) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/fountain-fluorite) Hidden $33.81 56,328 BUX $30.00 49,980 BUX 0.89x 2026-11-10 15:12 UTC [Knuckles (Brass) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/knuckles-brass) Hidden $33.81 56,328 BUX $12.00 19,992 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-10 15:12 UTC [Knot (Nickel) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/knot-nickel) Hidden $33.81 56,328 BUX $2.10 3,499 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-10 15:12 UTC [Knot (Nickel) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/knot-nickel) Hidden $33.81 56,328 BUX $2.10 3,499 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-10 08:17 UTC [Sarcophagus (Silver) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sarcophagus-silver) [mousev21](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/mousev21) $33.81 56,328 BUX $13.40 22,324 BUX 0.40x 2026-11-10 08:17 UTC [Fountain (Fluorite) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/fountain-fluorite) Hidden $33.81 56,328 BUX $30.00 49,980 BUX 0.89x 2026-11-08 02:02 UTC [Fountain (Fluorite) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/fountain-fluorite) [mousev21](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/mousev21) $33.81 56,328 BUX $30.00 49,980 BUX 0.89x 2026-11-08 02:02 UTC [Knot (Nickel) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/knot-nickel) Hidden $33.81 56,328 BUX $2.10 3,499 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-07 12:41 UTC [Knot (Nickel) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/knot-nickel) Hidden $33.81 56,328 BUX $2.10 3,499 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-07 12:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $33.81 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 1.0% Consumer Grade 17.5% Industrial Grade 23.0% Restricted 24.5% Mil Spec Grade 34.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt