--- title: "Nature's Nexus case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nature's Nexus ($48.78) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 7.55% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef6 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Nature's Nexus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef6) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Nature's Nexus A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef6?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef6?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef6) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef6?window=all) Price · $48.78 · 81,270 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $43.90 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 7.55% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 30.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 224.3% 449.0% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef6?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef6?window=7d) | 6 | 7.55% ±440.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef6) | 6 | 7.55% ±440.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef6?window=all) | 6 | 7.55% ±440.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/fountain-of-fortune-fluorite) | 1 in 100 | $2,700 4,498,200 BUX | 61.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Adamantium Feather other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/adamantium-feather) | 1 in 20 | $143 238,238 BUX | 16.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Wooden ladder other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/wooden-ladder) | 12.0% | $30.00 49,980 BUX | 8.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Zen Garden (Zirconium) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/zen-garden-zirconium) | 12.0% | $28.00 46,648 BUX | 7.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Wooden Notebook other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/wooden-notebook) | 13.5% | $9.99 16,643 BUX | 3.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Small Logs Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-logs-of-oak-wood) | 15.0% | $5.25 8,740 BUX | 1.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Silver Sunflower other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-sunflower) | 19.0% | $3.25 5,415 BUX | 1.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× | | [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) | 22.5% | $0.18 300 BUX | 0.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.48× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef6) [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) Hidden $48.78 81,270 BUX $0.18 300 BUX 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:06 UTC [Wooden Notebook other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/wooden-notebook) [mousev21](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/mousev21) $48.78 81,270 BUX $9.99 16,643 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-09 23:06 UTC [Small Logs Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-logs-of-oak-wood) Hidden $48.78 81,270 BUX $5.25 8,740 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) Hidden $48.78 81,270 BUX $0.18 300 BUX 0.00x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Silver Sunflower other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-sunflower) Hidden $48.78 81,270 BUX $3.25 5,415 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Silver Sunflower other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-sunflower) Hidden $48.78 81,270 BUX $3.25 5,415 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $48.78 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Exceedingly Rare 1.0% Consumer Grade 73.5% Mil Spec Grade 12.0% Industrial Grade 13.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt