--- title: "4% knife case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "4% knife ($4.66) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 137.52% over 199 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4a02ecb2b8af8aa34e rendered: 2026-11-12T08:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [4% knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4a02ecb2b8af8aa34e) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · 4% knife A case on 500 Casino, first seen 7 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4a02ecb2b8af8aa34e?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4a02ecb2b8af8aa34e?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4a02ecb2b8af8aa34e) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4a02ecb2b8af8aa34e?window=all) Price · $4.66 · 7,762 BUX Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 137.52% · 199 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 112 openings · below min 7 days · 199 openings · below min 30 days · 199 openings · below min since tracking started · 199 openings · below min 32.5% 160.8% 289.0% **Small sample.** 199 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4a02ecb2b8af8aa34e?window=24h) | 112 | 160.72% ±127.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4a02ecb2b8af8aa34e?window=7d) | 199 | 137.52% ±82.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4a02ecb2b8af8aa34e) | 199 | 137.52% ±82.9 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4a02ecb2b8af8aa34e?window=all) | 199 | 137.52% ±82.9 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** 500 Casino publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4a02ecb2b8af8aa34e) [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.66 7,762 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.66 7,762 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.66 7,762 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) [Levis](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Levis) $4.66 7,762 BUX $62.59 104,268 BUX 13.43x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.66 7,762 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.66 7,762 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.66 7,762 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) [Levis](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Levis) $4.66 7,762 BUX $120 200,253 BUX 25.80x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.66 7,762 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC [Sticker | AKickflip-47 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akickflip-47) Hidden $4.66 7,762 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 137.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $137.52 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt