--- title: "50% MEGA PROFIT AND KNIFE on 500 Casino: odds & RTP" description: "50% MEGA PROFIT AND KNIFE ($2.80) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 83.13% over 453 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4b02ecb2b8af8aa3f6 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [50% MEGA PROFIT AND KNIFE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4b02ecb2b8af8aa3f6) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · 50% MEGA PROFIT AND KNIFE A case on 500 Casino, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4b02ecb2b8af8aa3f6?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4b02ecb2b8af8aa3f6?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4b02ecb2b8af8aa3f6) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4b02ecb2b8af8aa3f6?window=all) Price · $2.80 · 4,663 BUX Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 83.13% · 453 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 108 openings · below min 7 days · 413 openings · below min 30 days · 453 openings · below min since tracking started · 453 openings · below min 73.0% 89.3% 105.5% **Small sample.** 453 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4b02ecb2b8af8aa3f6?window=24h) | 108 | 89.34% ±15.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4b02ecb2b8af8aa3f6?window=7d) | 413 | 85.29% ±10.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4b02ecb2b8af8aa3f6) | 453 | 83.13% ±9.45 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4b02ecb2b8af8aa3f6?window=all) | 453 | 83.13% ±9.45 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** 500 Casino publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4b02ecb2b8af8aa3f6) [Sticker | Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) Hidden $2.80 4,663 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:30 UTC [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.80 4,663 BUX $4.72 7,863 BUX 1.69x 2026-11-11 22:30 UTC [Sticker | Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) Hidden $2.80 4,663 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:30 UTC [Sticker | Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) [user-47abc5](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-47abc5) $2.80 4,663 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:30 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.80 4,663 BUX $4.30 7,163 BUX 1.54x 2026-11-11 22:30 UTC [Sticker | Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) Hidden $2.80 4,663 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:30 UTC [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.80 4,663 BUX $4.72 7,863 BUX 1.69x 2026-11-11 22:30 UTC [Sticker | Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) [user-47abc5](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-47abc5) $2.80 4,663 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:30 UTC [Sticker | Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) Hidden $2.80 4,663 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:30 UTC [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.80 4,663 BUX $4.72 7,863 BUX 1.69x 2026-11-11 22:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.13 on average: an expected loss of $16.87 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt