--- title: "Lucky 500? case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky 500? ($5.07) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 24.17% over 8 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aadef rendered: 2026-11-12T16:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Lucky 500?](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aadef) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Lucky 500? A case on 500 Casino, first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aadef?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aadef?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aadef) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aadef?window=all) Price · $5.07 · 8,441 BUX Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 24.17% · 8 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min 9.0% 24.3% 39.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aadef?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aadef?window=7d) | 8 | 24.17% ±14.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aadef) | 8 | 24.17% ±14.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aadef?window=all) | 8 | 24.17% ±14.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** 500 Casino publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aadef) [Sticker | karrigan (Foil) | Berlin 2019 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-karrigan-foil-berlin-2019) Hidden $5.07 8,441 BUX $1.00 1,666 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-09 16:41 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.07 8,441 BUX $0.50 833 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-09 16:41 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.07 8,441 BUX $3.56 5,930 BUX 0.70x 2026-11-09 16:41 UTC [Sticker | jabbi (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jabbi-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $5.07 8,441 BUX $1.62 2,698 BUX 0.32x 2026-11-09 16:41 UTC [Sticker | jabbi (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jabbi-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $5.07 8,441 BUX $1.62 2,698 BUX 0.32x 2026-11-09 16:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.07 8,441 BUX $0.50 833 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-09 16:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.07 8,441 BUX $0.50 833 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-09 16:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.07 8,441 BUX $0.50 833 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-09 16:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 24.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $24.17 on average: an expected loss of $75.83 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt