--- title: "Niko2169 Refresher case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Niko2169 Refresher ($4.16) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 90.59% over 450 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aae3c rendered: 2026-11-12T07:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Niko2169 Refresher](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aae3c) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Niko2169 Refresher A case on 500 Casino, first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aae3c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aae3c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aae3c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aae3c?window=all) Price · $4.16 · 6,929 BUX Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 90.59% · 450 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 44 openings · below min 7 days · 450 openings · below min 30 days · 450 openings · below min since tracking started · 450 openings · below min 32.0% 81.0% 130.0% **Small sample.** 450 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aae3c?window=24h) | 44 | 53.39% ±20.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aae3c?window=7d) | 450 | 90.59% ±38.7 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aae3c) | 450 | 90.59% ±38.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aae3c?window=all) | 450 | 90.59% ±38.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** 500 Casino publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $4.16 6,929 BUX $242 403,888 BUX 58.29x 2026-11-06 22:55 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $4.16 6,929 BUX $242 403,888 BUX 58.29x 2026-11-06 22:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee5102ecb2b8af8aae3c) [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-well-worn) Hidden $4.16 6,929 BUX $0.97 1,616 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-well-worn) Hidden $4.16 6,929 BUX $0.97 1,616 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-well-worn) Hidden $4.16 6,929 BUX $0.97 1,616 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-well-worn) [Levis](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Levis) $4.16 6,929 BUX $0.97 1,616 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) Hidden $4.16 6,929 BUX $8.83 14,710 BUX 2.12x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-well-worn) Hidden $4.16 6,929 BUX $0.97 1,616 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-well-worn) Hidden $4.16 6,929 BUX $0.97 1,616 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) [Levis](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Levis) $4.16 6,929 BUX $8.83 14,710 BUX 2.12x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-well-worn) Hidden $4.16 6,929 BUX $0.97 1,616 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:52 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-well-worn) Hidden $4.16 6,929 BUX $0.97 1,616 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $242 (58.29x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.59 on average: an expected loss of $9.41 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt