--- title: "Surfers Standoff case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Surfers Standoff ($3.27) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 6 items with odds, observed 81.73% over 939 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66437397e983643a07c79c48 rendered: 2026-11-12T17:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Surfers Standoff](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66437397e983643a07c79c48) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Surfers Standoff A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66437397e983643a07c79c48?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66437397e983643a07c79c48?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66437397e983643a07c79c48) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66437397e983643a07c79c48?window=all) Price · $3.27 · 5,452 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $2.95 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.73% · 939 openings, odds method Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 79.10% ±19.07 329 openings 30 days · 81.73% ±11.29 939 openings since tracking started · 81.73% ±11.29 939 openings -0.5% 101.8% 204.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66437397e983643a07c79c48?window=24h) | 10 | 93.99% ±109.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66437397e983643a07c79c48?window=7d) | 329 | 79.10% ±19.1 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66437397e983643a07c79c48) | 939 | 81.73% ±11.3 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66437397e983643a07c79c48?window=all) | 939 | 81.73% ±11.3 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 939 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $301 501,432 BUX | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $27.82 46,348 BUX | 17.9% | 14 | 17.8 | 0.78× | | [Sticker \| ESL One Cologne 2014 (Blue) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-esl-one-cologne-2014-blue) | 1 in 13 | $11.98 19,958 BUX | 32.5% | 79 | 75.0 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| Luminosity Gaming \| Cologne 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luminosity-gaming-cologne-2015) | 10.1% | $7.78 12,961 BUX | 26.7% | 72 | 94.8 | 0.76× | | [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) | 30.0% | $1.38 2,299 BUX | 14.1% | 282 | 281.7 | 1.00× | | [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) | 50.0% | $0.46 766 BUX | 7.8% | 492 | 469.5 | 1.05× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 17:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=66437397e983643a07c79c48) [Sticker | Luminosity Gaming | Cologne 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luminosity-gaming-cologne-2015) Hidden $3.27 5,452 BUX $7.78 12,961 BUX 2.38x 2026-11-12 17:32 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) Hidden $3.27 5,452 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 17:32 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) Hidden $3.27 5,452 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 17:32 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) [tenshi](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/tenshi) $3.27 5,452 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 17:32 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) Hidden $3.27 5,452 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 12:14 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) Hidden $3.27 5,452 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 12:14 UTC [Sticker | ESL One Cologne 2014 (Blue) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-esl-one-cologne-2014-blue) Hidden $3.27 5,452 BUX $11.98 19,958 BUX 3.66x 2026-11-12 10:50 UTC [Sticker | Luminosity Gaming | Cologne 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luminosity-gaming-cologne-2015) Hidden $3.27 5,452 BUX $7.78 12,961 BUX 2.38x 2026-11-12 10:50 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) Hidden $3.27 5,452 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 10:50 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $3.27 5,452 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 10:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $3.27 | 90.01% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% classified 1.9% exotic 8.0% High Grade 10.1% restricted 30.0% mil spec 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt