--- title: "Coastal Clash case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Coastal Clash ($3.58) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.50% from 6 items with odds, observed 93.43% over 688 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66438a77e983643a07c7a84a rendered: 2026-11-13T01:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Coastal Clash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66438a77e983643a07c7a84a) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Coastal Clash A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66438a77e983643a07c7a84a?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66438a77e983643a07c7a84a?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66438a77e983643a07c7a84a) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66438a77e983643a07c7a84a?window=all) Price · $3.58 · 5,971 BUX Advertised RTP · 88.50% · EV $3.17 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.43% · 688 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 20 openings · below min 7 days · 83.67% ±12.08 493 openings 30 days · 93.43% ±10.23 688 openings since tracking started · 93.43% ±10.23 688 openings 9.5% 70.0% 130.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66438a77e983643a07c7a84a?window=24h) | 20 | 69.98% ±60.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66438a77e983643a07c7a84a?window=7d) | 493 | 83.67% ±12.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66438a77e983643a07c7a84a) | 688 | 93.43% ±10.2 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66438a77e983643a07c7a84a?window=all) | 688 | 93.43% ±10.2 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 688 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Cmdr. Davida 'Goggles' Fernandez \| SEAL Frogman agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/cmdr-davida-goggles-fernandez-seal-frogman) | 1 in 100 | $38.61 64,324 BUX | 12.2% | 9 | 6.9 | 1.31× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $22.56 37,584 BUX | 14.2% | 15 | 13.8 | 1.09× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Storm (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-storm-factory-new) | 12.0% | $6.52 10,862 BUX | 24.7% | 77 | 82.6 | 0.93× | | [Patch \| Anchors Aweigh patch · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-anchors-aweigh) | 20.0% | $3.83 6,380 BUX | 24.1% | 152 | 137.6 | 1.10× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-well-worn) | 25.0% | $1.61 2,682 BUX | 12.7% | 179 | 172.0 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| Great Wave sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave) | 40.0% | $0.96 1,599 BUX | 12.1% | 256 | 275.2 | 0.93× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 23:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=66438a77e983643a07c7a84a) [Sticker | Great Wave sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave) Hidden $3.58 5,971 BUX $0.96 1,599 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-12 19:56 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-well-worn) Hidden $3.58 5,971 BUX $1.61 2,682 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-12 19:56 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-well-worn) Hidden $3.58 5,971 BUX $1.61 2,682 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-12 19:56 UTC [Sticker | Great Wave sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave) [Turtleee](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Turtleee) $3.58 5,971 BUX $0.96 1,599 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-12 19:56 UTC [Sticker | Great Wave sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave) Hidden $3.58 5,971 BUX $0.96 1,599 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC [Patch | Anchors Aweigh patch · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-anchors-aweigh) Hidden $3.58 5,971 BUX $3.83 6,380 BUX 1.07x 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC [Sticker | Great Wave sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave) Hidden $3.58 5,971 BUX $0.96 1,599 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-well-worn) Hidden $3.58 5,971 BUX $1.61 2,682 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC [Sticker | Great Wave sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave) Hidden $3.58 5,971 BUX $0.96 1,599 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-12 09:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-well-worn) Hidden $3.58 5,971 BUX $1.61 2,682 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-12 09:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $3.58 | 88.50% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed red 1.0% restricted 2.0% Consumer Grade 12.0% High Grade 20.0% Mil Spec Grade 25.0% high 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.50 on average: an expected loss of $11.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt