--- title: "Seaside scuttle case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Seaside scuttle ($4.83) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.50% from 6 items with odds, observed 94.65% over 318 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644d78fe983643a07c7bec7 rendered: 2026-11-12T16:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Seaside scuttle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644d78fe983643a07c7bec7) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Seaside scuttle A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644d78fe983643a07c7bec7?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644d78fe983643a07c7bec7?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644d78fe983643a07c7bec7) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644d78fe983643a07c7bec7?window=all) Price · $4.83 · 8,042 BUX Advertised RTP · 88.50% · EV $4.27 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.65% · 318 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 100.72% ±21.98 217 openings 30 days · 94.65% ±18.16 318 openings since tracking started · 94.65% ±18.16 318 openings -0.5% 63.0% 126.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644d78fe983643a07c7bec7?window=24h) | 14 | 39.24% ±86.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644d78fe983643a07c7bec7?window=7d) | 217 | 100.72% ±22.0 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644d78fe983643a07c7bec7) | 318 | 94.65% ±18.2 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644d78fe983643a07c7bec7?window=all) | 318 | 94.65% ±18.2 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 318 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $32.22 53,678 BUX | 22.6% | 11 | 9.5 | 1.15× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $27.98 46,614 BUX | 32.7% | 17 | 15.9 | 1.07× | | [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $11.31 18,842 BUX | 18.5% | 24 | 22.3 | 1.08× | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Holo) \| Rio 2022 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-holo-rio-2022) | 10.0% | $4.22 7,030 BUX | 9.9% | 32 | 31.8 | 1.01× | | [P2000 \| Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $1.98 3,298 BUX | 7.0% | 47 | 47.7 | 0.99× | | [P90 \| Desert DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-factory-new) | 60.0% | $0.66 1,099 BUX | 9.3% | 187 | 190.8 | 0.98× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6644d78fe983643a07c7bec7) [P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.83 8,042 BUX $1.98 3,298 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-12 12:15 UTC [P90 | Desert DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 8,042 BUX $0.66 1,099 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 12:15 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.83 8,042 BUX $1.98 3,298 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-12 11:20 UTC [P90 | Desert DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 8,042 BUX $0.66 1,099 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 11:20 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) [xsparktec](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/xsparktec) $4.83 8,042 BUX $1.98 3,298 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-12 11:20 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.83 8,042 BUX $1.98 3,298 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-12 11:20 UTC [Sticker | Cloud9 (Holo) | Rio 2022 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-holo-rio-2022) Hidden $4.83 8,042 BUX $4.22 7,030 BUX 0.87x 2026-11-12 11:20 UTC [P90 | Desert DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-factory-new) [xsparktec](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/xsparktec) $4.83 8,042 BUX $0.66 1,099 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 11:20 UTC [P90 | Desert DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 8,042 BUX $0.66 1,099 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 11:19 UTC [Sticker | Cloud9 (Holo) | Rio 2022 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-holo-rio-2022) [xsparktec](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/xsparktec) $4.83 8,042 BUX $4.22 7,030 BUX 0.87x 2026-11-12 11:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $4.83 | 88.50% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 3.0% Consumer Grade 65.0% blue 7.0% Exotic 10.0% Industrial Grade 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.50 on average: an expected loss of $11.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt