--- title: "Holiday BBQ case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Holiday BBQ ($8.43) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.49% from 7 items with odds, observed 86.60% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644efcde983643a07c7c4bc rendered: 2026-11-12T12:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Holiday BBQ](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644efcde983643a07c7c4bc) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Holiday BBQ A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644efcde983643a07c7c4bc?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644efcde983643a07c7c4bc?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644efcde983643a07c7c4bc) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644efcde983643a07c7c4bc?window=all) Price · $8.43 · 14,037 BUX Advertised RTP · 88.49% · EV $7.46 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.60% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min -0.5% 103.8% 208.0% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644efcde983643a07c7c4bc?window=24h) | 4 | 60.29% ±146.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644efcde983643a07c7c4bc?window=7d) | 16 | 86.60% ±73.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644efcde983643a07c7c4bc) | 16 | 86.60% ±73.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644efcde983643a07c7c4bc?window=all) | 16 | 86.60% ±73.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $77.04 128,348 BUX | 10.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $55.25 92,046 BUX | 14.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $37.04 61,708 BUX | 19.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $16.15 26,905 BUX | 17.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× | | ['Medium Rare' Crasswater \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · Master](https://gambatracker.com/items/medium-rare-crasswater-guerrilla-warfare) | 10.0% | $11.50 19,159 BUX | 15.4% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $5.49 9,146 BUX | 11.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [Souvenir SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-scar-20-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) | 60.0% | $1.39 2,315 BUX | 11.2% | 13 | 9.6 | 1.35× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6644efcde983643a07c7c4bc) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.43 14,037 BUX $16.15 26,905 BUX 1.92x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-scar-20-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.43 14,037 BUX $1.39 2,315 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-scar-20-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.43 14,037 BUX $1.39 2,315 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-scar-20-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) [KatteManden](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/KatteManden) $8.43 14,037 BUX $1.39 2,315 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.43 14,037 BUX $5.49 9,146 BUX 0.65x 2026-11-10 19:26 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) Hidden $8.43 14,037 BUX $77.04 128,348 BUX 9.14x 2026-11-10 19:26 UTC [Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-scar-20-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.43 14,037 BUX $1.39 2,315 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-10 19:26 UTC [Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-scar-20-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) [makarass](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/makarass) $8.43 14,037 BUX $1.39 2,315 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-10 19:26 UTC [Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-scar-20-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.43 14,037 BUX $1.39 2,315 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-10 18:53 UTC [Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-scar-20-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.43 14,037 BUX $1.39 2,315 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-10 18:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $8.43 | 88.49% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 9.0% classified 2.0% Classified 4.0% Master 10.0% Restricted 15.0% Industrial Grade 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.49 on average: an expected loss of $11.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt