--- title: "Paradise Pursuit case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Paradise Pursuit ($7.25) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.49% from 7 items with odds, observed 77.48% over 612 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f2d6e983643a07c7c619 rendered: 2026-11-12T17:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Paradise Pursuit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f2d6e983643a07c7c619) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Paradise Pursuit A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f2d6e983643a07c7c619?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f2d6e983643a07c7c619?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f2d6e983643a07c7c619) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f2d6e983643a07c7c619?window=all) Price · $7.25 · 12,084 BUX Advertised RTP · 88.49% · EV $6.42 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.48% · 612 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 83.61% ±17.90 465 openings 30 days · 77.48% ±15.60 612 openings since tracking started · 77.48% ±15.60 612 openings 27.0% 124.3% 221.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f2d6e983643a07c7c619?window=24h) | 16 | 124.20% ±96.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f2d6e983643a07c7c619?window=7d) | 465 | 83.61% ±17.9 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f2d6e983643a07c7c619) | 612 | 77.48% ±15.6 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f2d6e983643a07c7c619?window=all) | 612 | 77.48% ±15.6 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 612 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $117 194,555 BUX | 9.1% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-orion-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $73.61 122,634 BUX | 17.2% | 5 | 9.2 | 0.54× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $55.08 91,763 BUX | 17.2% | 10 | 12.2 | 0.82× | | [Patch \| Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) | 1 in 17 | $16.72 27,855 BUX | 15.6% | 40 | 36.7 | 1.09× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 10.0% | $10.42 17,359 BUX | 16.2% | 59 | 61.2 | 0.96× | | [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $6.00 9,996 BUX | 18.7% | 128 | 122.4 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) | 60.0% | $0.64 1,066 BUX | 6.0% | 368 | 367.2 | 1.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 17:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6644f2d6e983643a07c7c619) [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $7.25 12,084 BUX $0.64 1,066 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $7.25 12,084 BUX $0.64 1,066 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.25 12,084 BUX $6.00 9,996 BUX 0.83x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.25 12,084 BUX $0.64 1,066 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $7.25 12,084 BUX $0.64 1,066 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.25 12,084 BUX $6.00 9,996 BUX 0.83x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [Patch | Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) Hidden $7.25 12,084 BUX $16.72 27,855 BUX 2.31x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.25 12,084 BUX $55.08 91,763 BUX 7.59x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $7.25 12,084 BUX $0.64 1,066 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC [SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.25 12,084 BUX $6.00 9,996 BUX 0.83x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.25 | 88.49% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% Classified 1.5% Restricted 2.0% remarkable 6.0% classified 10.0% Consumer Grade 20.0% Mil Spec Grade 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.49 on average: an expected loss of $11.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt