--- title: "Sundae Treasure case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sundae Treasure ($6.42) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 108.19% over 434 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f8b7e983643a07c7c99d rendered: 2026-11-12T14:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Sundae Treasure](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f8b7e983643a07c7c99d) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Sundae Treasure A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f8b7e983643a07c7c99d?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f8b7e983643a07c7c99d?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f8b7e983643a07c7c99d) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f8b7e983643a07c7c99d?window=all) Price · $6.42 · 10,692 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $5.78 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 108.19% · 434 openings, odds method Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 96.75% ±26.00 184 openings 30 days · 108.19% ±16.93 434 openings since tracking started · 108.19% ±16.93 434 openings -0.5% 75.8% 152.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.26% – 125.12%, 434 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f8b7e983643a07c7c99d?window=24h) | 16 | 63.37% ±88.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f8b7e983643a07c7c99d?window=7d) | 184 | 96.75% ±26.0 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f8b7e983643a07c7c99d) | 434 | 108.19% ±16.9 | +2.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644f8b7e983643a07c7c99d?window=all) | 434 | 108.19% ±16.9 | +2.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 434 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $88.98 148,240 BUX | 15.4% | 8 | 4.3 | 1.84× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $53.21 88,647 BUX | 18.4% | 10 | 8.7 | 1.15× | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $15.71 26,172 BUX | 21.8% | 46 | 34.7 | 1.32× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 16.0% | $6.96 11,595 BUX | 19.3% | 63 | 69.4 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $3.39 5,647 BUX | 11.7% | 83 | 86.8 | 0.96× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 53.0% | $1.46 2,432 BUX | 13.4% | 224 | 230.0 | 0.97× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6644f8b7e983643a07c7c99d) [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.42 10,692 BUX $3.39 5,647 BUX 0.53x 2026-11-12 00:42 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) [Mulli](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Mulli) $6.42 10,692 BUX $3.39 5,647 BUX 0.53x 2026-11-12 00:42 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $6.42 10,692 BUX $1.46 2,432 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 23:26 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $6.42 10,692 BUX $3.39 5,647 BUX 0.53x 2026-11-11 23:26 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $6.42 10,692 BUX $1.46 2,432 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $6.42 10,692 BUX $1.46 2,432 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.42 10,692 BUX $3.39 5,647 BUX 0.53x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $6.42 10,692 BUX $6.96 11,595 BUX 1.08x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $6.42 10,692 BUX $1.46 2,432 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $6.42 10,692 BUX $1.46 2,432 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $6.42 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 9.0% covert 2.0% Legendary 16.0% Classified 73.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt