--- title: "Party Refresher case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Party Refresher ($12.14) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 65.61% over 34 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644fc98e983643a07c7cbcb rendered: 2026-11-12T11:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Party Refresher](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644fc98e983643a07c7cbcb) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Party Refresher A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644fc98e983643a07c7cbcb?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644fc98e983643a07c7cbcb?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644fc98e983643a07c7cbcb) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644fc98e983643a07c7cbcb?window=all) Price · $12.14 · 20,218 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $10.92 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 65.61% · 34 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 26 openings · below min 30 days · 34 openings · below min since tracking started · 34 openings · below min 5.5% 109.0% 212.5% **Small sample.** 34 openings and 6.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644fc98e983643a07c7cbcb?window=24h) | 4 | 108.95% ±102.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644fc98e983643a07c7cbcb?window=7d) | 26 | 65.65% ±40.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644fc98e983643a07c7cbcb) | 34 | 65.61% ±35.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6644fc98e983643a07c7cbcb?window=all) | 34 | 65.61% ±35.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $110 183,193 BUX | 5.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $67.28 112,088 BUX | 9.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $35.50 59,143 BUX | 13.0% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $22.31 37,168 BUX | 24.5% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $12.93 21,541 BUX | 20.1% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× | | [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 65.0% | $4.72 7,863 BUX | 28.1% | 24 | 22.1 | 1.09× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6644fc98e983643a07c7cbcb) [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.14 20,218 BUX $12.93 21,541 BUX 1.07x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.14 20,218 BUX $12.93 21,541 BUX 1.07x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) Hidden $12.14 20,218 BUX $4.72 7,863 BUX 0.39x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) [Meow](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Meow) $12.14 20,218 BUX $22.31 37,168 BUX 1.84x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) Hidden $12.14 20,218 BUX $4.72 7,863 BUX 0.39x 2026-11-08 07:02 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) Hidden $12.14 20,218 BUX $4.72 7,863 BUX 0.39x 2026-11-08 07:02 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) Hidden $12.14 20,218 BUX $4.72 7,863 BUX 0.39x 2026-11-08 07:02 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $12.14 20,218 BUX $4.72 7,863 BUX 0.39x 2026-11-08 07:02 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) Hidden $12.14 20,218 BUX $4.72 7,863 BUX 0.39x 2026-11-08 07:02 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) Hidden $12.14 20,218 BUX $4.72 7,863 BUX 0.39x 2026-11-08 07:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $12.14 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 4.5% Covert 18.5% classified 12.0% restricted 65.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt