--- title: "Tropical Fever case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tropical Fever ($6.21) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.50% from 6 items with odds, observed 80.20% over 139 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66450121e983643a07c7ce08 rendered: 2026-11-13T03:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Tropical Fever](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66450121e983643a07c7ce08) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Tropical Fever A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66450121e983643a07c7ce08?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66450121e983643a07c7ce08?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66450121e983643a07c7ce08) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66450121e983643a07c7ce08?window=all) Price · $6.21 · 10,340 BUX Advertised RTP · 88.50% · EV $5.49 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.20% · 139 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 44 openings · below min 30 days · 80.20% ±22.62 139 openings since tracking started · 80.20% ±22.62 139 openings -0.5% 84.0% 168.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66450121e983643a07c7ce08?window=24h) | 4 | 34.43% ±133.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66450121e983643a07c7ce08?window=7d) | 44 | 66.98% ±40.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66450121e983643a07c7ce08) | 139 | 80.20% ±22.6 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66450121e983643a07c7ce08?window=all) | 139 | 80.20% ±22.6 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 139 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $46.16 76,902 BUX | 8.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $32.91 54,828 BUX | 24.0% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.26× | | [XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $19.45 32,403 BUX | 24.8% | 6 | 9.7 | 0.62× | | [Jungle Rebel \| Elite Crew agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/jungle-rebel-elite-crew) | 10.0% | $7.87 13,111 BUX | 14.3% | 9 | 13.9 | 0.65× | | [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) | 16.0% | $4.29 7,147 BUX | 12.5% | 22 | 22.2 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Palm (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) | 62.0% | $1.42 2,365 BUX | 16.0% | 94 | 86.2 | 1.09× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 13 Nov, 02:19 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=66450121e983643a07c7ce08) [Souvenir MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.21 10,340 BUX $1.42 2,365 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-12 20:29 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.21 10,340 BUX $1.42 2,365 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-12 20:29 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.21 10,340 BUX $1.42 2,365 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-12 20:29 UTC [AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) [anikah](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/anikah) $6.21 10,340 BUX $4.29 7,147 BUX 0.69x 2026-11-12 20:29 UTC [Jungle Rebel | Elite Crew agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/jungle-rebel-elite-crew) Hidden $6.21 10,340 BUX $7.87 13,111 BUX 1.27x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.21 10,340 BUX $1.42 2,365 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.21 10,340 BUX $1.42 2,365 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $6.21 10,340 BUX $1.42 2,365 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-factory-new) Hidden $6.21 10,340 BUX $19.45 32,403 BUX 3.13x 2026-11-11 12:04 UTC [Jungle Rebel | Elite Crew agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/jungle-rebel-elite-crew) [Štozaxuinia](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/%C5%A0tozaxuinia) $6.21 10,340 BUX $7.87 13,111 BUX 1.27x 2026-11-11 12:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $6.21 | 88.50% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 1.0% classified 4.0% Industrial Grade 69.0% distinguished 10.0% industrial 16.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.50 on average: an expected loss of $11.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt