--- title: "Summer Memories case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Summer Memories ($4.48) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 82.40% over 422 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6645dcafe983643a07c7dd5c rendered: 2026-11-11T18:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Summer Memories](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6645dcafe983643a07c7dd5c) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Summer Memories A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6645dcafe983643a07c7dd5c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6645dcafe983643a07c7dd5c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6645dcafe983643a07c7dd5c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6645dcafe983643a07c7dd5c?window=all) Price · $4.48 · 7,461 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $4.03 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.40% · 422 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 90.09% ±16.32 306 openings 30 days · 82.40% ±13.89 422 openings since tracking started · 82.40% ±13.89 422 openings 36.5% 84.8% 133.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6645dcafe983643a07c7dd5c?window=24h) | 36 | 84.87% ±47.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6645dcafe983643a07c7dd5c?window=7d) | 306 | 90.09% ±16.3 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6645dcafe983643a07c7dd5c) | 422 | 82.40% ±13.9 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6645dcafe983643a07c7dd5c?window=all) | 422 | 82.40% ±13.9 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 422 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $52.38 87,265 BUX | 13.0% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.47× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $25.03 41,699 BUX | 18.6% | 8 | 12.7 | 0.63× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $7.62 12,694 BUX | 28.4% | 71 | 63.3 | 1.12× | | [Sticker \| Vitality (Gold) \| Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-gold-paris-2023) | 20.0% | $2.99 4,981 BUX | 14.8% | 100 | 84.4 | 1.18× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Aloha (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-aloha-battle-scarred) | 21.0% | $2.72 4,531 BUX | 14.2% | 90 | 88.6 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 40.0% | $1.11 1,849 BUX | 11.0% | 151 | 168.8 | 0.89× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 11 Nov, 16:10 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6645dcafe983643a07c7dd5c) [AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $4.48 7,461 BUX $1.11 1,849 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $4.48 7,461 BUX $1.11 1,849 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC [Sticker | Vitality (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $4.48 7,461 BUX $2.99 4,981 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [Sticker | Vitality (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $4.48 7,461 BUX $2.99 4,981 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [Sticker | Vitality (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $4.48 7,461 BUX $2.99 4,981 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $4.48 7,461 BUX $1.11 1,849 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $4.48 7,461 BUX $1.11 1,849 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Aloha (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-aloha-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.48 7,461 BUX $2.72 4,531 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $4.48 7,461 BUX $1.11 1,849 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [Sticker | Vitality (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-gold-paris-2023) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $4.48 7,461 BUX $2.99 4,981 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $4.48 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 1.0% Classified 3.0% Consumer Grade 15.0% Extraordinary 20.0% Mil Spec Grade 21.0% Industrial Grade 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt