--- title: "8th Birthday of 500 case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "8th Birthday of 500 ($10.63) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.50% from 6 items with odds, observed 88.44% over 169 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6648a2253782a90af2104046 rendered: 2026-11-13T04:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [8th Birthday of 500](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6648a2253782a90af2104046) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · 8th Birthday of 500 A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6648a2253782a90af2104046?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6648a2253782a90af2104046?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6648a2253782a90af2104046) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6648a2253782a90af2104046?window=all) Price · $10.63 · 17,712 BUX Advertised RTP · 88.50% · EV $9.41 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.44% · 169 openings, odds method Variance · 14.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 109.34% ±69.62 114 openings 30 days · 88.44% ±57.18 169 openings since tracking started · 88.44% ±57.18 169 openings -0.5% 145.0% 290.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6648a2253782a90af2104046?window=24h) | 10 | 54.92% ±235.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6648a2253782a90af2104046?window=7d) | 114 | 109.34% ±69.6 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6648a2253782a90af2104046) | 169 | 88.44% ±57.2 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6648a2253782a90af2104046?window=all) | 169 | 88.44% ±57.2 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 173 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) | 1 in 200 | $558 930,261 BUX | 29.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $97.05 161,685 BUX | 10.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $24.16 40,250 BUX | 12.8% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.81× | | [CS20 Case Key other · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs20-case-key) | 18.5% | $10.83 18,042 BUX | 21.3% | 33 | 32.0 | 1.03× | | [Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) | 25.0% | $5.82 9,696 BUX | 15.5% | 41 | 43.3 | 0.95× | | [Patch \| BIG \| Stockholm 2021 patch · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-big-stockholm-2021) | 50.0% | $1.96 3,265 BUX | 10.4% | 90 | 86.5 | 1.04× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 13 Nov, 02:19 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $10.63 17,712 BUX $558 930,261 BUX 52.52x 2026-11-06 18:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6648a2253782a90af2104046) [CS20 Case Key other · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs20-case-key) Hidden $10.63 17,712 BUX $10.83 18,042 BUX 1.02x 2026-11-12 16:19 UTC [Patch | BIG | Stockholm 2021 patch · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-big-stockholm-2021) Hidden $10.63 17,712 BUX $1.96 3,265 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-12 16:19 UTC [Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) Hidden $10.63 17,712 BUX $5.82 9,696 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-12 16:19 UTC [Patch | BIG | Stockholm 2021 patch · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-big-stockholm-2021) Hidden $10.63 17,712 BUX $1.96 3,265 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-12 16:19 UTC [Patch | BIG | Stockholm 2021 patch · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-big-stockholm-2021) Hidden $10.63 17,712 BUX $1.96 3,265 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-12 16:18 UTC [Patch | BIG | Stockholm 2021 patch · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-big-stockholm-2021) Hidden $10.63 17,712 BUX $1.96 3,265 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-12 16:18 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $10.63 17,712 BUX $24.16 40,250 BUX 2.27x 2026-11-12 16:18 UTC [Patch | BIG | Stockholm 2021 patch · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-big-stockholm-2021) Hidden $10.63 17,712 BUX $1.96 3,265 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-12 16:18 UTC [Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) Hidden $10.63 17,712 BUX $5.82 9,696 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-12 12:15 UTC [Patch | BIG | Stockholm 2021 patch · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-big-stockholm-2021) Hidden $10.63 17,712 BUX $1.96 3,265 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-12 12:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $10.63 | 88.50% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed exotic 25.5% covert 6.0% Base Grade 18.5% High Grade 50.0% best hit $558 (52.52x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.50 on average: an expected loss of $11.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt