--- title: "Ancient Ritual case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ancient Ritual ($0.50) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 9 items with odds, observed 78.68% over 4,382 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/664cd9617ad5767d3b3ecfeb rendered: 2026-11-12T10:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Ancient Ritual](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/664cd9617ad5767d3b3ecfeb) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Ancient Ritual A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/664cd9617ad5767d3b3ecfeb?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/664cd9617ad5767d3b3ecfeb?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/664cd9617ad5767d3b3ecfeb) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/664cd9617ad5767d3b3ecfeb?window=all) Price · $0.50 · 840 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $0.45 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.68% · 4,382 openings, odds method Variance · 26.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 98.19% ±53.12 357 openings 7 days · 81.37% ±17.98 3,118 openings 30 days · 78.68% ±15.16 4,382 openings since tracking started · 78.68% ±15.16 4,382 openings 44.5% 98.3% 152.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/664cd9617ad5767d3b3ecfeb?window=24h) | 357 | 98.19% ±53.1 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/664cd9617ad5767d3b3ecfeb?window=7d) | 3,118 | 81.37% ±18.0 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/664cd9617ad5767d3b3ecfeb) | 4,382 | 78.68% ±15.2 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/664cd9617ad5767d3b3ecfeb?window=all) | 4,382 | 78.68% ±15.2 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,382 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $44.23 73,687 BUX | 4.9% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $37.77 62,924 BUX | 12.5% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.46× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $33.37 55,594 BUX | 22.1% | 11 | 13.1 | 0.84× | | [Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/antwerp-2022-ancient-souvenir-package) | 1 in 83 | $3.77 6,280 BUX | 10.0% | 49 | 52.6 | 0.93× | | [G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $3.23 5,381 BUX | 12.1% | 78 | 74.5 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| Ancient Beast (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ancient-beast-foil) | 1 in 20 | $0.88 1,466 BUX | 9.7% | 229 | 219.1 | 1.05× | | [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.53 882 BUX | 5.8% | 230 | 219.1 | 1.05× | | [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.25 416 BUX | 3.6% | 275 | 289.2 | 0.95× | | [Souvenir MP7 \| Tall Grass (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-tall-grass-well-worn) | 80.0% | $0.11 183 BUX | 19.4% | 3,506 | 3505.6 | 1.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [USP-S | Ancient Visions (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $44.23 73,687 BUX 87.72x 2026-11-05 20:34 UTC [XM1014 | Ancient Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $37.77 62,924 BUX 74.91x 2026-11-11 21:04 UTC [XM1014 | Ancient Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-well-worn) [mosermost](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/mosermost) $0.50 840 BUX $37.77 62,924 BUX 74.91x 2026-11-10 15:17 UTC [XM1014 | Ancient Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $37.77 62,924 BUX 74.91x 2026-11-05 20:31 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $33.37 55,594 BUX 66.18x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $33.37 55,594 BUX 66.18x 2026-11-09 09:57 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $33.37 55,594 BUX 66.18x 2026-11-09 09:18 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $33.37 55,594 BUX 66.18x 2026-11-06 18:06 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $33.37 55,594 BUX 66.18x 2026-11-05 20:37 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $33.37 55,594 BUX 66.18x 2026-11-05 20:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=664cd9617ad5767d3b3ecfeb) [Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-tall-grass-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $0.11 183 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 10:35 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-tall-grass-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $0.11 183 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 10:35 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-tall-grass-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $0.11 183 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 10:35 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-tall-grass-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $0.11 183 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 10:35 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-tall-grass-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $0.11 183 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 10:35 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-tall-grass-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $0.11 183 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 10:35 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-tall-grass-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $0.11 183 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 10:35 UTC [Sticker | Ancient Beast (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ancient-beast-foil) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $0.88 1,466 BUX 1.75x 2026-11-12 10:35 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-tall-grass-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $0.11 183 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 08:54 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-tall-grass-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 840 BUX $0.11 183 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 08:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $0.50 | 90.01% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 0.2% classified 0.3% Base Grade 1.2% Industrial Grade 81.7% Exotic 5.0% Consumer Grade 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 6.6% best hit $44.23 (87.72x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt