--- title: "10% GutKnife case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% GutKnife ($16.76) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 70.78% over 12 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66af4a440772eabbb2cf8175 rendered: 2026-11-12T12:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [10% GutKnife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66af4a440772eabbb2cf8175) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · 10% GutKnife A case on 500 Casino, first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66af4a440772eabbb2cf8175?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66af4a440772eabbb2cf8175?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66af4a440772eabbb2cf8175) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66af4a440772eabbb2cf8175?window=all) Price · $16.76 · 27,917 BUX Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 70.78% · 12 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min -0.5% 111.8% 224.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66af4a440772eabbb2cf8175?window=24h) | 9 | 92.68% ±130.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66af4a440772eabbb2cf8175?window=7d) | 12 | 70.78% ±98.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66af4a440772eabbb2cf8175) | 12 | 70.78% ±98.9 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/66af4a440772eabbb2cf8175?window=all) | 12 | 70.78% ±98.9 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** 500 Casino publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=66af4a440772eabbb2cf8175) [Sticker | Titan | Cologne 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-cologne-2014) Hidden $16.76 27,917 BUX $33.92 56,510 BUX 2.02x 2026-11-12 09:30 UTC [Perfect World Graffiti Box graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/perfect-world-graffiti-box) Hidden $16.76 27,917 BUX $0.86 1,432 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-12 09:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Fnatic | London 2018 graffiti · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-fnatic-london-2018) Hidden $16.76 27,917 BUX $0.85 1,416 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-12 09:30 UTC [Perfect World Graffiti Box graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/perfect-world-graffiti-box) Hidden $16.76 27,917 BUX $0.86 1,432 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Fnatic | London 2018 graffiti · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-fnatic-london-2018) Hidden $16.76 27,917 BUX $0.85 1,416 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [Perfect World Graffiti Box graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/perfect-world-graffiti-box) Hidden $16.76 27,917 BUX $0.86 1,432 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [Perfect World Graffiti Box graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/perfect-world-graffiti-box) Hidden $16.76 27,917 BUX $0.86 1,432 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Fnatic | London 2018 graffiti · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-fnatic-london-2018) Hidden $16.76 27,917 BUX $0.85 1,416 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.76 27,917 BUX $99.86 166,366 BUX 5.96x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [Perfect World Graffiti Box graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/perfect-world-graffiti-box) Hidden $16.76 27,917 BUX $0.86 1,432 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-06 15:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 70.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $70.78 on average: an expected loss of $29.22 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt