--- title: "Haunted Arsenal case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Haunted Arsenal ($4.25) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 102.45% over 535 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89469fcfd41a01003584 rendered: 2026-11-12T10:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Haunted Arsenal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89469fcfd41a01003584) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Haunted Arsenal A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89469fcfd41a01003584?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89469fcfd41a01003584?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89469fcfd41a01003584) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89469fcfd41a01003584?window=all) Price · $4.25 · 7,079 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $3.82 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.45% · 535 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 56 openings · below min 7 days · 114.77% ±19.53 272 openings 30 days · 102.45% ±13.93 535 openings since tracking started · 102.45% ±13.93 535 openings 61.5% 105.0% 148.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89469fcfd41a01003584?window=24h) | 56 | 104.96% ±43.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89469fcfd41a01003584?window=7d) | 272 | 114.77% ±19.5 | +2.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89469fcfd41a01003584) | 535 | 102.45% ±13.9 | +1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89469fcfd41a01003584?window=all) | 535 | 102.45% ±13.9 | +1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 535 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $33.37 55,594 BUX | 13.1% | 12 | 8.0 | 1.50× | | [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $19.52 32,520 BUX | 31.9% | 43 | 33.4 | 1.29× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $17.33 28,871 BUX | 32.9% | 37 | 38.8 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.22 3,698 BUX | 8.7% | 83 | 80.3 | 1.03× | | [Sticker \| Witch sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witch) | 17.5% | $0.79 1,316 BUX | 3.6% | 80 | 93.6 | 0.85× | | [Sticker \| Witchcraft sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witchcraft) | 17.5% | $0.77 1,282 BUX | 3.5% | 94 | 93.6 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Dark Sigil (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-dark-sigil-field-tested) | 17.5% | $0.69 1,149 BUX | 3.2% | 84 | 93.6 | 0.90× | | [Sticker \| Lord of Skulls (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lord-of-skulls-holo) | 17.5% | $0.69 1,149 BUX | 3.2% | 102 | 93.6 | 1.09× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=671f89469fcfd41a01003584) [StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-factory-new) Hidden $4.25 7,079 BUX $2.22 3,698 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 16:04 UTC [Sticker | Witchcraft sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witchcraft) Hidden $4.25 7,079 BUX $0.77 1,282 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 16:04 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-factory-new) Hidden $4.25 7,079 BUX $2.22 3,698 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 16:04 UTC [Sticker | Lord of Skulls (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lord-of-skulls-holo) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $4.25 7,079 BUX $0.69 1,149 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:04 UTC [Sticker | Lord of Skulls (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lord-of-skulls-holo) Hidden $4.25 7,079 BUX $0.69 1,149 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:04 UTC [MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.25 7,079 BUX $19.52 32,520 BUX 4.59x 2026-11-11 16:04 UTC [Sticker | Lord of Skulls (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lord-of-skulls-holo) Hidden $4.25 7,079 BUX $0.69 1,149 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:04 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-factory-new) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $4.25 7,079 BUX $2.22 3,698 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 16:04 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-dark-sigil-field-tested) Hidden $4.25 7,079 BUX $0.69 1,149 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:04 UTC [Sticker | Witch sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witch) Hidden $4.25 7,079 BUX $0.79 1,316 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $4.25 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.5% blue 6.3% Industrial Grade 7.2% Mil Spec Grade 15.0% High Grade 35.0% #4b69ff 17.5% Remarkable 17.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt