--- title: "Graveyard Cache case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Graveyard Cache ($20.32) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 75.78% over 107 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89539fcfd41a010035fe rendered: 2026-11-12T08:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Graveyard Cache](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89539fcfd41a010035fe) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Graveyard Cache A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89539fcfd41a010035fe?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89539fcfd41a010035fe?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89539fcfd41a010035fe) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89539fcfd41a010035fe?window=all) Price · $20.32 · 33,857 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $18.29 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.78% · 107 openings, odds method Variance · 9.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 87 openings · below min 30 days · 75.78% ±57.76 107 openings since tracking started · 75.78% ±57.76 107 openings 17.5% 138.2% 259.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89539fcfd41a010035fe?window=24h) | 32 | 152.69% ±105.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89539fcfd41a010035fe?window=7d) | 87 | 85.40% ±64.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89539fcfd41a010035fe) | 107 | 75.78% ±57.8 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89539fcfd41a010035fe?window=all) | 107 | 75.78% ±57.8 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 107 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $674 1,122,917 BUX | 18.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $313 521,191 BUX | 25.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $92.11 153,455 BUX | 20.1% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $23.19 38,634 BUX | 9.5% | 11 | 8.0 | 1.37× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Shallow Grave (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shallow-grave-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $14.66 24,423 BUX | 7.4% | 10 | 9.9 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $13.14 21,891 BUX | 7.0% | 10 | 10.4 | 0.96× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $9.15 15,243 BUX | 5.5% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 12.5% | $7.24 12,061 BUX | 4.9% | 18 | 13.4 | 1.35× | | [Dreams & Nightmares Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dreams-and-nightmares-case) | 44.0% | $0.58 966 BUX | 1.4% | 44 | 47.1 | 0.93× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) Hidden $20.32 33,857 BUX $674 1,122,917 BUX 33.17x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=671f89539fcfd41a010035fe) [★ Skeleton Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) Hidden $20.32 33,857 BUX $674 1,122,917 BUX 33.17x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [Dreams & Nightmares Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dreams-and-nightmares-case) Hidden $20.32 33,857 BUX $0.58 966 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Shallow Grave (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shallow-grave-factory-new) Hidden $20.32 33,857 BUX $14.66 24,423 BUX 0.72x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $20.32 33,857 BUX $7.24 12,061 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $20.32 33,857 BUX $92.11 153,455 BUX 4.53x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [Dreams & Nightmares Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dreams-and-nightmares-case) Hidden $20.32 33,857 BUX $0.58 966 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.32 33,857 BUX $9.15 15,243 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $20.32 33,857 BUX $23.19 38,634 BUX 1.14x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [Dreams & Nightmares Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dreams-and-nightmares-case) Hidden $20.32 33,857 BUX $0.58 966 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC [Dreams & Nightmares Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dreams-and-nightmares-case) Hidden $20.32 33,857 BUX $0.58 966 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $20.32 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.5% mil spec 12.5% Classified 13.3% industrial 7.5% classified 22.3% Base Grade 44.0% best hit $674 (33.17x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt