--- title: "Wicked Wares case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Wicked Wares ($133.83) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 112.08% over 24 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f895c9fcfd41a010036c0 rendered: 2026-11-12T11:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Wicked Wares](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f895c9fcfd41a010036c0) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Wicked Wares A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f895c9fcfd41a010036c0?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f895c9fcfd41a010036c0?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f895c9fcfd41a010036c0) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f895c9fcfd41a010036c0?window=all) Price · $133.83 · 222,953 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $120.44 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 112.08% · 24 openings, odds method Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 24 openings · below min since tracking started · 24 openings · below min 20.5% 166.3% 312.0% **Small sample.** 24 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f895c9fcfd41a010036c0?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f895c9fcfd41a010036c0?window=7d) | 12 | 182.38% ±128.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f895c9fcfd41a010036c0) | 24 | 112.08% ±91.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f895c9fcfd41a010036c0?window=all) | 24 | 112.08% ±91.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $2,670 4,447,720 BUX | 11.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2,203 3,670,631 BUX | 18.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $424 705,767 BUX | 15.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $328 546,914 BUX | 17.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $309 514,327 BUX | 17.9% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 12.5% | $90.91 151,456 BUX | 9.4% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 15.0% | $50.07 83,416 BUX | 6.2% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.67× | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) | 20.0% | $14.46 24,090 BUX | 2.4% | 8 | 4.8 | 1.67× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 33.0% | $3.89 6,480 BUX | 1.1% | 6 | 7.9 | 0.76× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $134 222,953 BUX $2,670 4,447,720 BUX 19.95x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=671f895c9fcfd41a010036c0) [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $134 222,953 BUX $3.89 6,480 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) Hidden $134 222,953 BUX $50.07 83,416 BUX 0.37x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) Hidden $134 222,953 BUX $14.46 24,090 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $134 222,953 BUX $14.46 24,090 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $134 222,953 BUX $2,670 4,447,720 BUX 19.95x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $134 222,953 BUX $3.89 6,480 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $134 222,953 BUX $3.89 6,480 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $134 222,953 BUX $3.89 6,480 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) Hidden $134 222,953 BUX $14.46 24,090 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-05 17:41 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) Hidden $134 222,953 BUX $50.07 83,416 BUX 0.37x 2026-11-05 17:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $134 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 0.5% Covert 1.0% restricted 37.5% covert 6.5% extraordinary 7.0% classified 27.5% Classified 20.0% best hit $2,670 (19.95x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt