--- title: "Sinister Shadows case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sinister Shadows ($1.00) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 98.43% over 1,086 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89699fcfd41a01003765 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Sinister Shadows](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89699fcfd41a01003765) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Sinister Shadows A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89699fcfd41a01003765?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89699fcfd41a01003765?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89699fcfd41a01003765) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89699fcfd41a01003765?window=all) Price · $1.00 · 1,658 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $0.90 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.43% · 1,086 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 35.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 61 openings · below min 7 days · 96.54% ±8.58 763 openings 30 days · 98.43% ±7.19 1,086 openings since tracking started · 98.43% ±7.19 1,086 openings 55.5% 86.5% 117.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.23% – 105.62%, 1,086 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89699fcfd41a01003765?window=24h) | 61 | 86.50% ±30.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89699fcfd41a01003765?window=7d) | 763 | 96.54% ±8.58 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89699fcfd41a01003765) | 1,086 | 98.43% ±7.19 | +2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/671f89699fcfd41a01003765?window=all) | 1,086 | 98.43% ±7.19 | +2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,086 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $16.75 27,905 BUX | 4.7% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.84× | | [FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $6.67 11,112 BUX | 9.3% | 15 | 13.6 | 1.10× | | [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $4.55 7,580 BUX | 10.2% | 37 | 21.7 | 1.70× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-factory-new) | 16.0% | $1.07 1,782 BUX | 19.1% | 190 | 173.8 | 1.09× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 16.0% | $1.02 1,699 BUX | 18.2% | 151 | 173.8 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.98 1,632 BUX | 17.5% | 142 | 173.8 | 0.82× | | [Music Kit \| Meechy Darko, Gothic Luxury music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-meechy-darko-gothic-luxury) | 22.5% | $0.48 799 BUX | 12.0% | 272 | 244.3 | 1.11× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-battle-scarred) | 26.0% | $0.31 516 BUX | 9.0% | 274 | 282.4 | 0.97× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=671f89699fcfd41a01003765) [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 1,658 BUX $0.98 1,632 BUX 0.98x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.00 1,658 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.31x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [Music Kit | Meechy Darko, Gothic Luxury music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-meechy-darko-gothic-luxury) [user-dedb78](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-dedb78) $1.00 1,658 BUX $0.48 799 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 1,658 BUX $1.07 1,782 BUX 1.07x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 1,658 BUX $0.98 1,632 BUX 0.98x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-battle-scarred) [user-dedb78](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-dedb78) $1.00 1,658 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.31x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 1,658 BUX $1.07 1,782 BUX 1.07x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 1,658 BUX $0.98 1,632 BUX 0.98x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) [user-dedb78](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-dedb78) $1.00 1,658 BUX $1.02 1,699 BUX 1.02x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.00 1,658 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.31x 2026-11-11 23:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $1.00 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mil Spec Grade 32.3% restricted 17.3% Industrial Grade 28.0% High Grade 22.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt