--- title: "Ember Intrigue case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ember Intrigue ($3.29) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 94.79% over 397 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1119fb38f6993769215c rendered: 2026-11-12T19:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Ember Intrigue](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1119fb38f6993769215c) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Ember Intrigue A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1119fb38f6993769215c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1119fb38f6993769215c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1119fb38f6993769215c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1119fb38f6993769215c?window=all) Price · $3.29 · 5,484 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2.96 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.79% · 397 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 34.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 97.44% ±17.11 244 openings 30 days · 94.79% ±13.41 397 openings since tracking started · 94.79% ±13.41 397 openings -0.5% 69.5% 139.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1119fb38f6993769215c?window=24h) | 12 | 61.92% ±77.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1119fb38f6993769215c?window=7d) | 244 | 97.44% ±17.1 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1119fb38f6993769215c) | 397 | 94.79% ±13.4 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1119fb38f6993769215c?window=all) | 397 | 94.79% ±13.4 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 459 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $36.10 60,142 BUX | 18.3% | 9 | 6.9 | 1.31× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-factory-new) | 15.0% | $6.08 10,129 BUX | 30.8% | 72 | 68.8 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-factory-new) | 17.5% | $3.96 6,597 BUX | 23.4% | 80 | 80.3 | 1.00× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 21.0% | $1.72 2,865 BUX | 12.2% | 86 | 96.4 | 0.89× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.10 1,832 BUX | 7.4% | 86 | 91.8 | 0.94× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.94 1,566 BUX | 7.9% | 126 | 114.8 | 1.10× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 19:03 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f1119fb38f6993769215c) [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) Hidden $3.29 5,484 BUX $1.72 2,865 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-12 12:14 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-factory-new) Hidden $3.29 5,484 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 1.20x 2026-11-12 12:14 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $3.29 5,484 BUX $1.10 1,832 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 23:27 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $3.29 5,484 BUX $1.10 1,832 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 23:27 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-factory-new) Hidden $3.29 5,484 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 1.20x 2026-11-11 23:27 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $3.29 5,484 BUX $0.94 1,566 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-11 23:27 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-factory-new) [Le Shake](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Le%20Shake) $3.29 5,484 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 1.20x 2026-11-11 22:07 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) [Lidthyggepågeden](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Lidthyggep%C3%A5geden) $3.29 5,484 BUX $0.94 1,566 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-11 22:07 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.29 5,484 BUX $0.94 1,566 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-factory-new) Hidden $3.29 5,484 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 1.20x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $3.29 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.5% restricted 78.5% blue 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt