--- title: "Rebel Vanguard case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Rebel Vanguard ($49.35) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 101.96% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1143fb38f6993769230a rendered: 2026-11-12T16:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Rebel Vanguard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1143fb38f6993769230a) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Rebel Vanguard A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1143fb38f6993769230a?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1143fb38f6993769230a?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1143fb38f6993769230a) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1143fb38f6993769230a?window=all) Price · $49.35 · 82,212 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $44.41 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.96% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 31.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min 72.5% 108.5% 144.5% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1143fb38f6993769230a?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1143fb38f6993769230a?window=7d) | 12 | 108.35% ±35.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1143fb38f6993769230a) | 20 | 101.96% ±27.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1143fb38f6993769230a?window=all) | 20 | 101.96% ±27.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $184 306,610 BUX | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $136 226,492 BUX | 13.8% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $72.07 120,068 BUX | 19.5% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 14.0% | $63.28 105,424 BUX | 19.9% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 15.0% | $42.50 70,805 BUX | 14.4% | 6 | 3.0 | 2.00× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 25.0% | $26.45 44,065 BUX | 14.9% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× | | [Vypa Sista of the Revolution \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/vypa-sista-of-the-revolution-guerrilla-warfare) | 28.5% | $20.91 34,836 BUX | 13.4% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f1143fb38f6993769230a) [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) Hidden $49.35 82,212 BUX $42.50 70,805 BUX 0.86x 2026-11-08 00:16 UTC [Vypa Sista of the Revolution | Guerrilla Warfare agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/vypa-sista-of-the-revolution-guerrilla-warfare) Hidden $49.35 82,212 BUX $20.91 34,836 BUX 0.42x 2026-11-08 00:16 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $49.35 82,212 BUX $26.45 44,065 BUX 0.54x 2026-11-08 00:16 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) [terney](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/terney) $49.35 82,212 BUX $42.50 70,805 BUX 0.86x 2026-11-08 00:16 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $49.35 82,212 BUX $63.28 105,424 BUX 1.28x 2026-11-07 12:32 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $49.35 82,212 BUX $63.28 105,424 BUX 1.28x 2026-11-07 12:32 UTC [Vypa Sista of the Revolution | Guerrilla Warfare agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/vypa-sista-of-the-revolution-guerrilla-warfare) Hidden $49.35 82,212 BUX $20.91 34,836 BUX 0.42x 2026-11-07 12:32 UTC [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $49.35 82,212 BUX $136 226,492 BUX 2.75x 2026-11-07 12:32 UTC [Vypa Sista of the Revolution | Guerrilla Warfare agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/vypa-sista-of-the-revolution-guerrilla-warfare) Hidden $49.35 82,212 BUX $20.91 34,836 BUX 0.42x 2026-11-05 17:41 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) Hidden $49.35 82,212 BUX $42.50 70,805 BUX 0.86x 2026-11-05 17:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $49.35 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 26.0% classified 31.5% Mil Spec Grade 14.0% red 28.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt