--- title: "Phenomenal Phenomena case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Phenomenal Phenomena ($129.43) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 154.24% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f114afb38f6993769237c rendered: 2026-11-12T16:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Phenomenal Phenomena](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f114afb38f6993769237c) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Phenomenal Phenomena A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f114afb38f6993769237c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f114afb38f6993769237c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f114afb38f6993769237c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f114afb38f6993769237c?window=all) Price · $129.43 · 215,629 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $116.49 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 154.24% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min 89.5% 152.8% 216.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f114afb38f6993769237c?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f114afb38f6993769237c?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f114afb38f6993769237c) | 12 | 154.24% ±61.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f114afb38f6993769237c?window=all) | 12 | 154.24% ±61.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,064 1,772,207 BUX | 9.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $445 742,086 BUX | 15.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $242 403,471 BUX | 15.6% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 16.5% | $200 333,516 BUX | 28.4% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.52× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-electric-hive-well-worn) | 20.5% | $113 187,674 BUX | 19.8% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 25.0% | $29.17 48,597 BUX | 6.3% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 25.5% | $25.30 42,149 BUX | 5.5% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $129 215,629 BUX $1,064 1,772,207 BUX 8.22x 2026-11-03 17:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f114afb38f6993769237c) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $129 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 47.0% covert 20.5% restricted 7.5% #d32ee6 25.0% best hit $1,064 (8.22x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt