--- title: "Astral Armament case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Astral Armament ($2.40) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 7 items with odds, observed 89.96% over 786 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115bfb38f69937692464 rendered: 2026-11-12T12:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Astral Armament](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115bfb38f69937692464) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Astral Armament A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115bfb38f69937692464?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115bfb38f69937692464?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115bfb38f69937692464) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115bfb38f69937692464?window=all) Price · $2.40 · 4,000 BUX Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $2.16 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.96% · 786 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 50 openings · below min 7 days · 84.81% ±13.72 434 openings 30 days · 89.96% ±10.20 786 openings since tracking started · 89.96% ±10.20 786 openings 51.0% 92.0% 133.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115bfb38f69937692464?window=24h) | 50 | 91.92% ±40.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115bfb38f69937692464?window=7d) | 434 | 84.81% ±13.7 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115bfb38f69937692464) | 786 | 89.96% ±10.2 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115bfb38f69937692464?window=all) | 786 | 89.96% ±10.2 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 806 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $21.90 36,485 BUX | 20.3% | 17 | 16.1 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $7.99 13,311 BUX | 14.8% | 34 | 32.2 | 1.05× | | [Nova \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $6.71 11,178 BUX | 21.7% | 47 | 56.4 | 0.83× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 17.0% | $2.63 4,381 BUX | 20.7% | 140 | 137.0 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.49 2,482 BUX | 10.3% | 127 | 120.9 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Humanity's Last Breath, Void music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-humanitys-last-breath-void) | 25.0% | $0.50 833 BUX | 5.8% | 193 | 201.5 | 0.96× | | [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.46 766 BUX | 6.4% | 248 | 241.8 | 1.03× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f115bfb38f69937692464) [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) Hidden $2.40 4,000 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-12 10:38 UTC [Nova | Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.40 4,000 BUX $6.71 11,178 BUX 2.79x 2026-11-12 10:38 UTC [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) Hidden $2.40 4,000 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-12 10:38 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-field-tested) Hidden $2.40 4,000 BUX $1.49 2,482 BUX 0.62x 2026-11-12 10:38 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-field-tested) Hidden $2.40 4,000 BUX $1.49 2,482 BUX 0.62x 2026-11-12 07:55 UTC [StatTrak™ Music Kit | Humanity's Last Breath, Void music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-humanitys-last-breath-void) Hidden $2.40 4,000 BUX $0.50 833 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-12 07:55 UTC [StatTrak™ Music Kit | Humanity's Last Breath, Void music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-humanitys-last-breath-void) Hidden $2.40 4,000 BUX $0.50 833 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-12 07:55 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) [user-1e2e3e](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-1e2e3e) $2.40 4,000 BUX $2.63 4,381 BUX 1.10x 2026-11-12 07:55 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) [Le Shake](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Le%20Shake) $2.40 4,000 BUX $2.63 4,381 BUX 1.10x 2026-11-11 22:14 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-field-tested) [Lidthyggepågeden](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Lidthyggep%C3%A5geden) $2.40 4,000 BUX $1.49 2,482 BUX 0.62x 2026-11-11 22:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $2.40 | 89.99% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mil Spec Grade 2.0% #4b69ff 4.0% Restricted 7.0% restricted 32.0% High Grade 25.0% milspec 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt