--- title: "Arcane Archieves case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Arcane Archieves ($4.12) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 94.12% over 538 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115ffb38f699376924b6 rendered: 2026-11-12T12:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Arcane Archieves](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115ffb38f699376924b6) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Arcane Archieves A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115ffb38f699376924b6?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115ffb38f699376924b6?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115ffb38f699376924b6) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115ffb38f699376924b6?window=all) Price · $4.12 · 6,856 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $3.70 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.12% · 538 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 87.30% ±17.64 307 openings 30 days · 94.12% ±13.32 538 openings since tracking started · 94.12% ±13.32 538 openings 0.0% 63.7% 127.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115ffb38f699376924b6?window=24h) | 24 | 63.88% ±63.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115ffb38f699376924b6?window=7d) | 307 | 87.30% ±17.6 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115ffb38f699376924b6) | 538 | 94.12% ±13.3 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f115ffb38f699376924b6?window=all) | 538 | 94.12% ±13.3 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 562 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $39.94 66,540 BUX | 32.4% | 18 | 16.9 | 1.07× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $5.15 8,579 BUX | 8.3% | 33 | 33.7 | 0.98× | | [Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) | 12.0% | $4.26 7,097 BUX | 13.8% | 75 | 67.4 | 1.11× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) | 16.0% | $3.60 5,997 BUX | 15.6% | 85 | 89.9 | 0.95× | | [P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) | 18.0% | $2.43 4,048 BUX | 11.8% | 118 | 101.2 | 1.17× | | [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.86 3,098 BUX | 10.0% | 110 | 112.4 | 0.98× | | [Souvenir MP7 \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-orange-peel-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $1.20 1,999 BUX | 8.1% | 123 | 140.5 | 0.88× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f115ffb38f699376924b6) [Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) Hidden $4.12 6,856 BUX $4.26 7,097 BUX 1.04x 2026-11-12 11:13 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-orange-peel-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.12 6,856 BUX $1.20 1,999 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-12 11:13 UTC [SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) Hidden $4.12 6,856 BUX $1.86 3,098 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-12 11:13 UTC [Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) Hidden $4.12 6,856 BUX $4.26 7,097 BUX 1.04x 2026-11-12 11:13 UTC [SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) Hidden $4.12 6,856 BUX $1.86 3,098 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-12 10:17 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-orange-peel-minimal-wear) [ALT-F4](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/ALT-F4) $4.12 6,856 BUX $1.20 1,999 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-12 10:17 UTC [SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) Hidden $4.12 6,856 BUX $1.86 3,098 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-12 09:00 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) Hidden $4.12 6,856 BUX $3.60 5,997 BUX 0.87x 2026-11-12 09:00 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-orange-peel-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.12 6,856 BUX $1.20 1,999 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-12 09:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) [nahuimesteren](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/nahuimesteren) $4.12 6,856 BUX $5.15 8,579 BUX 1.25x 2026-11-12 09:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $4.12 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 27.0% #8847ff 32.0% classified 16.0% industrial 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt