--- title: "Bone Peril case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bone Peril ($1.45) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.02% from 6 items with odds, observed 94.64% over 1,537 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1162fb38f699376924ea rendered: 2026-11-12T13:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Bone Peril](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1162fb38f699376924ea) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Bone Peril A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1162fb38f699376924ea?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1162fb38f699376924ea?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1162fb38f699376924ea) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1162fb38f699376924ea?window=all) Price · $1.45 · 2,413 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.02% · EV $1.30 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.64% · 1,537 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 94.44% ±12.49 964 openings 30 days · 94.64% ±9.89 1,537 openings since tracking started · 94.64% ±9.89 1,537 openings 21.0% 81.5% 142.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1162fb38f699376924ea?window=24h) | 42 | 81.62% ±59.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1162fb38f699376924ea?window=7d) | 964 | 94.44% ±12.5 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1162fb38f699376924ea) | 1,537 | 94.64% ±9.89 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1162fb38f699376924ea?window=all) | 1,537 | 94.64% ±9.89 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,668 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $16.75 27,905 BUX | 38.5% | 56 | 50.0 | 1.12× | | [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.24 7,063 BUX | 16.3% | 83 | 83.4 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) | 14.0% | $1.73 2,882 BUX | 18.6% | 237 | 233.5 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-bone-forged-factory-new) | 22.0% | $0.68 1,132 BUX | 11.5% | 362 | 367.0 | 0.99× | | [Patch \| Danger Zone patch · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-danger-zone) | 27.0% | $0.40 666 BUX | 8.3% | 439 | 450.4 | 0.97× | | [PP-Bizon \| Death Rattle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-death-rattle-battle-scarred) | 29.0% | $0.31 516 BUX | 6.9% | 491 | 483.7 | 1.02× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f1162fb38f699376924ea) [PP-Bizon | Death Rattle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-death-rattle-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.45 2,413 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-12 12:57 UTC [Patch | Danger Zone patch · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-danger-zone) Hidden $1.45 2,413 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-12 12:57 UTC [Patch | Danger Zone patch · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-danger-zone) Hidden $1.45 2,413 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-12 12:57 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-bone-forged-factory-new) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $1.45 2,413 BUX $0.68 1,132 BUX 0.47x 2026-11-12 12:57 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) Hidden $1.45 2,413 BUX $1.73 2,882 BUX 1.19x 2026-11-12 12:15 UTC [Patch | Danger Zone patch · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-danger-zone) Hidden $1.45 2,413 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-12 12:15 UTC [Patch | Danger Zone patch · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-danger-zone) Hidden $1.45 2,413 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-12 10:44 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-bone-forged-factory-new) Hidden $1.45 2,413 BUX $0.68 1,132 BUX 0.47x 2026-11-12 10:44 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-bone-forged-factory-new) Hidden $1.45 2,413 BUX $0.68 1,132 BUX 0.47x 2026-11-12 10:44 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $1.45 2,413 BUX $1.73 2,882 BUX 1.19x 2026-11-12 10:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $1.45 | 90.02% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mil Spec Grade 25.0% mil spec 5.0% consumer 14.0% Remarkable 27.0% Consumer Grade 29.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.02 on average: an expected loss of $9.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt