--- title: "Celestial Clash case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Celestial Clash ($8.10) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 93.76% over 177 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1165fb38f6993769251e rendered: 2026-11-12T14:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Celestial Clash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1165fb38f6993769251e) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Celestial Clash A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1165fb38f6993769251e?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1165fb38f6993769251e?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1165fb38f6993769251e) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1165fb38f6993769251e?window=all) Price · $8.10 · 13,487 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $7.29 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.76% · 177 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 33.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 92.54% ±18.36 114 openings 30 days · 93.76% ±14.74 177 openings since tracking started · 93.76% ±14.74 177 openings 51.0% 86.5% 122.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1165fb38f6993769251e?window=24h) | 32 | 86.50% ±34.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1165fb38f6993769251e?window=7d) | 114 | 92.54% ±18.4 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1165fb38f6993769251e) | 177 | 93.76% ±14.7 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1165fb38f6993769251e?window=all) | 177 | 93.76% ±14.7 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 181 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $63.09 105,107 BUX | 8.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $24.54 40,883 BUX | 10.1% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.29× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $18.46 30,754 BUX | 12.7% | 12 | 9.1 | 1.33× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $18.30 30,487 BUX | 12.6% | 11 | 9.1 | 1.22× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 19.0% | $8.06 13,427 BUX | 21.0% | 29 | 34.4 | 0.84× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-well-worn) | 26.0% | $7.22 12,028 BUX | 25.8% | 57 | 47.1 | 1.21× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 41.0% | $1.64 2,732 BUX | 9.2% | 64 | 74.2 | 0.86× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f1165fb38f6993769251e) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.10 13,487 BUX $1.64 2,732 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-11 23:49 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $8.10 13,487 BUX $7.22 12,028 BUX 0.89x 2026-11-11 23:49 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.10 13,487 BUX $1.64 2,732 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-11 23:49 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $8.10 13,487 BUX $1.64 2,732 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-11 23:49 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $8.10 13,487 BUX $7.22 12,028 BUX 0.89x 2026-11-11 23:47 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $8.10 13,487 BUX $7.22 12,028 BUX 0.89x 2026-11-11 23:47 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $8.10 13,487 BUX $7.22 12,028 BUX 0.89x 2026-11-11 23:47 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $8.10 13,487 BUX $18.30 30,487 BUX 2.26x 2026-11-11 23:47 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.10 13,487 BUX $1.64 2,732 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-11 23:45 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.10 13,487 BUX $1.64 2,732 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-11 23:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $8.10 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 11.0% classified 22.0% Legendary 26.0% restricted 41.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt