--- title: "Ceremonial Codex case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ceremonial Codex ($3.87) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 90.48% over 345 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1168fb38f6993769255b rendered: 2026-11-12T14:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Ceremonial Codex](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1168fb38f6993769255b) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Ceremonial Codex A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1168fb38f6993769255b?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1168fb38f6993769255b?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1168fb38f6993769255b) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1168fb38f6993769255b?window=all) Price · $3.87 · 6,452 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $3.49 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.48% · 345 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 63.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 94.16% ±13.00 278 openings 30 days · 90.48% ±11.67 345 openings since tracking started · 90.48% ±11.67 345 openings 21.0% 64.5% 108.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1168fb38f6993769255b?window=24h) | 30 | 61.06% ±39.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1168fb38f6993769255b?window=7d) | 278 | 94.16% ±13.0 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1168fb38f6993769255b) | 345 | 90.48% ±11.7 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1168fb38f6993769255b?window=all) | 345 | 90.48% ±11.7 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 345 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $17.20 28,655 BUX | 34.5% | 26 | 24.2 | 1.08× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 13.0% | $6.41 10,679 BUX | 23.9% | 35 | 44.9 | 0.78× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-battle-scarred) | 17.0% | $4.44 7,397 BUX | 21.7% | 66 | 58.7 | 1.13× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 20.0% | $2.17 3,615 BUX | 12.5% | 72 | 69.0 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| Master Guardian Elite (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-master-guardian-elite-holo) | 21.0% | $0.65 1,082 BUX | 3.9% | 71 | 72.5 | 0.98× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Little Crown (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-little-crown-tracer-yellow) | 22.0% | $0.56 932 BUX | 3.5% | 75 | 75.9 | 0.99× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f1168fb38f6993769255b) [Sealed Graffiti | Little Crown (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-little-crown-tracer-yellow) Hidden $3.87 6,452 BUX $0.56 932 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 13:05 UTC [Sticker | Master Guardian Elite (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-master-guardian-elite-holo) Hidden $3.87 6,452 BUX $0.65 1,082 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-12 13:05 UTC [Sticker | Master Guardian Elite (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-master-guardian-elite-holo) Hidden $3.87 6,452 BUX $0.65 1,082 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-12 13:05 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $3.87 6,452 BUX $6.41 10,679 BUX 1.66x 2026-11-12 13:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.87 6,452 BUX $4.44 7,397 BUX 1.15x 2026-11-12 12:57 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Little Crown (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-little-crown-tracer-yellow) Hidden $3.87 6,452 BUX $0.56 932 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 12:57 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Little Crown (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-little-crown-tracer-yellow) Hidden $3.87 6,452 BUX $0.56 932 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 12:57 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Little Crown (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-little-crown-tracer-yellow) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $3.87 6,452 BUX $0.56 932 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 12:57 UTC [P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $3.87 6,452 BUX $2.17 3,615 BUX 0.56x 2026-11-12 10:51 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Little Crown (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-little-crown-tracer-yellow) Hidden $3.87 6,452 BUX $0.56 932 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 10:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $3.87 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.0% Covert 17.0% classified 20.0% Remarkable 21.0% Base Grade 22.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt