--- title: "Clash Manifest case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Clash Manifest ($5.59) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 6 items with odds, observed 88.02% over 387 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f116efb38f699376925a3 rendered: 2026-11-12T13:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Clash Manifest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f116efb38f699376925a3) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Clash Manifest A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f116efb38f699376925a3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f116efb38f699376925a3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f116efb38f699376925a3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f116efb38f699376925a3?window=all) Price · $5.59 · 9,316 BUX Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $5.03 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.02% · 387 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 51.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 92.83% ±10.98 236 openings 30 days · 88.02% ±8.58 387 openings since tracking started · 88.02% ±8.58 387 openings 79.0% 150.3% 221.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f116efb38f699376925a3?window=24h) | 6 | 152.09% ±68.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f116efb38f699376925a3?window=7d) | 236 | 92.83% ±11.0 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f116efb38f699376925a3) | 387 | 88.02% ±8.58 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f116efb38f699376925a3?window=all) | 387 | 88.02% ±8.58 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 415 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $20.47 34,103 BUX | 16.3% | 14 | 16.6 | 0.84× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 10.0% | $12.97 21,608 BUX | 25.8% | 37 | 41.5 | 0.89× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) | 15.0% | $6.64 11,062 BUX | 19.8% | 89 | 62.3 | 1.43× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 20.0% | $5.98 9,962 BUX | 23.8% | 68 | 83.0 | 0.82× | | [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 25.0% | $1.90 3,165 BUX | 9.4% | 92 | 103.8 | 0.89× | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-battle-scarred) | 26.0% | $0.96 1,599 BUX | 5.0% | 115 | 107.9 | 1.07× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f116efb38f699376925a3) [Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $5.59 9,316 BUX $5.98 9,962 BUX 1.07x 2026-11-11 16:00 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) [Ludomanas](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ludomanas) $5.59 9,316 BUX $6.64 11,062 BUX 1.19x 2026-11-11 16:00 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $5.59 9,316 BUX $5.98 9,962 BUX 1.07x 2026-11-11 16:00 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) [Ludomanas](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ludomanas) $5.59 9,316 BUX $5.98 9,962 BUX 1.07x 2026-11-11 16:00 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.59 9,316 BUX $20.47 34,103 BUX 3.66x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) [Ludomanas](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ludomanas) $5.59 9,316 BUX $5.98 9,962 BUX 1.07x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $5.59 9,316 BUX $12.97 21,608 BUX 2.32x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.59 9,316 BUX $0.96 1,599 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.59 9,316 BUX $0.96 1,599 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-battle-scarred) [tenshi](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/tenshi) $5.59 9,316 BUX $0.96 1,599 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $5.59 | 89.99% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 19.0% Covert 10.0% restricted 20.0% violet 25.0% #eb4b4b 26.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt