--- title: "Dark Ritual case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dark Ritual ($3.12) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 7 items with odds, observed 87.10% over 673 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1174fb38f69937692616 rendered: 2026-11-12T17:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Dark Ritual](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1174fb38f69937692616) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Dark Ritual A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1174fb38f69937692616?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1174fb38f69937692616?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1174fb38f69937692616) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1174fb38f69937692616?window=all) Price · $3.12 · 5,197 BUX Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $2.81 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.10% · 673 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 86.07% ±11.86 334 openings 30 days · 87.10% ±8.35 673 openings since tracking started · 87.10% ±8.35 673 openings -0.5% 57.8% 116.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1174fb38f69937692616?window=24h) | 12 | 52.65% ±62.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1174fb38f69937692616?window=7d) | 334 | 86.07% ±11.9 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1174fb38f69937692616) | 673 | 87.10% ±8.35 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1174fb38f69937692616?window=all) | 673 | 87.10% ±8.35 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 685 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $20.58 34,286 BUX | 7.3% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.17× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $13.14 21,891 BUX | 23.4% | 34 | 34.3 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) | 15.0% | $5.12 8,529 BUX | 27.4% | 101 | 102.8 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) | 17.0% | $3.75 6,247 BUX | 22.7% | 105 | 116.5 | 0.90× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Rising Skull graffiti · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-rising-skull) | 15.0% | $1.57 2,615 BUX | 8.4% | 92 | 102.8 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) | 22.0% | $0.88 1,466 BUX | 6.9% | 147 | 150.7 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.44 733 BUX | 3.9% | 198 | 171.3 | 1.16× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 17:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f1174fb38f69937692616) [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) Hidden $3.12 5,197 BUX $0.88 1,466 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-12 12:14 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) Hidden $3.12 5,197 BUX $3.75 6,247 BUX 1.20x 2026-11-12 12:14 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) Hidden $3.12 5,197 BUX $5.12 8,529 BUX 1.64x 2026-11-12 10:50 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) Hidden $3.12 5,197 BUX $5.12 8,529 BUX 1.64x 2026-11-12 10:50 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.12 5,197 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 10:50 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $3.12 5,197 BUX $0.88 1,466 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-12 10:50 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.12 5,197 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 10:40 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.12 5,197 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 10:40 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.12 5,197 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 10:40 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) Hidden $3.12 5,197 BUX $0.88 1,466 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-12 10:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $3.12 | 89.99% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 23.0% Mil Spec Grade 15.0% Remarkable 15.0% milspec 22.0% mil spec 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt