--- title: "Discord Essence case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Discord Essence ($2.22) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 89.41% over 690 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1178fb38f6993769265b rendered: 2026-11-12T16:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Discord Essence](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1178fb38f6993769265b) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Discord Essence A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1178fb38f6993769265b?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1178fb38f6993769265b?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1178fb38f6993769265b) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1178fb38f6993769265b?window=all) Price · $2.22 · 3,702 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2.00 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.41% · 690 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 93.89% ±10.84 385 openings 30 days · 89.41% ±8.10 690 openings since tracking started · 89.41% ±8.10 690 openings -0.5% 91.5% 183.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1178fb38f6993769265b?window=24h) | 4 | 76.72% ±106.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1178fb38f6993769265b?window=7d) | 385 | 93.89% ±10.8 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1178fb38f6993769265b) | 690 | 89.41% ±8.10 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1178fb38f6993769265b?window=all) | 690 | 89.41% ±8.10 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 734 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $11.65 19,408 BUX | 11.6% | 15 | 14.7 | 1.02× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $9.42 15,693 BUX | 23.5% | 33 | 36.7 | 0.90× | | [Welcome to the Clutch Pin pin · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/welcome-to-the-clutch-pin) | 16.0% | $2.77 4,614 BUX | 22.2% | 106 | 117.4 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 16.0% | $2.61 4,348 BUX | 20.9% | 140 | 117.4 | 1.19× | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-fallout-warning-battle-scarred) | 18.0% | $0.93 1,549 BUX | 8.4% | 134 | 132.1 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.88 1,466 BUX | 8.8% | 137 | 146.8 | 0.93× | | [Patch \| Danger Zone patch · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-danger-zone) | 23.0% | $0.40 666 BUX | 4.6% | 169 | 168.8 | 1.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f1178fb38f6993769265b) [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) Hidden $2.22 3,702 BUX $0.88 1,466 BUX 0.40x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC [Welcome to the Clutch Pin pin · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/welcome-to-the-clutch-pin) Hidden $2.22 3,702 BUX $2.77 4,614 BUX 1.25x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC [Welcome to the Clutch Pin pin · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/welcome-to-the-clutch-pin) Hidden $2.22 3,702 BUX $2.77 4,614 BUX 1.25x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC [Patch | Danger Zone patch · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-danger-zone) [user54e6878a](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user54e6878a) $2.22 3,702 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $2.22 3,702 BUX $2.61 4,348 BUX 1.17x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [Welcome to the Clutch Pin pin · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/welcome-to-the-clutch-pin) [Ludomanas](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ludomanas) $2.22 3,702 BUX $2.77 4,614 BUX 1.25x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [Welcome to the Clutch Pin pin · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/welcome-to-the-clutch-pin) Hidden $2.22 3,702 BUX $2.77 4,614 BUX 1.25x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) [Ludomanas](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ludomanas) $2.22 3,702 BUX $0.88 1,466 BUX 0.40x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Fallout Warning (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-fallout-warning-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.22 3,702 BUX $0.93 1,549 BUX 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) [Ludomanas](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ludomanas) $2.22 3,702 BUX $0.88 1,466 BUX 0.40x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $2.22 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.0% Restricted 5.0% High Grade 16.0% Mil Spec Grade 16.0% Industrial Grade 18.0% milspec 20.0% Remarkable 23.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt