--- title: "Elemental Storm case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Elemental Storm ($59.01) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 65.06% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f117bfb38f699376926b6 rendered: 2026-11-12T14:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Elemental Storm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f117bfb38f699376926b6) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Elemental Storm A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f117bfb38f699376926b6?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f117bfb38f699376926b6?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f117bfb38f699376926b6) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f117bfb38f699376926b6?window=all) Price · $59.01 · 98,317 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $53.11 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 65.06% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 82.3% 165.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f117bfb38f699376926b6?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f117bfb38f699376926b6?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f117bfb38f699376926b6) | 4 | 65.06% ±99.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f117bfb38f699376926b6?window=all) | 4 | 65.06% ±99.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $320 533,236 BUX | 15.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $199 332,017 BUX | 13.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $93.44 155,671 BUX | 9.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $85.39 142,259 BUX | 16.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 11.0% | $80.04 133,346 BUX | 16.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 19.0% | $47.25 78,718 BUX | 16.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 24.0% | $21.23 35,369 BUX | 9.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 24.5% | $6.45 10,745 BUX | 3.0% | 2 | 1.0 | — | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f117bfb38f699376926b6) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $59.01 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 19.0% Restricted 3.5% classified 53.0% restricted 24.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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