--- title: "Mystic Meteors case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mystic Meteors ($144.75) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 62.33% over 34 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f118bfb38f6993769279c rendered: 2026-11-12T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Mystic Meteors](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f118bfb38f6993769279c) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Mystic Meteors A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f118bfb38f6993769279c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f118bfb38f6993769279c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f118bfb38f6993769279c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f118bfb38f6993769279c?window=all) Price · $144.75 · 241,158 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $130.28 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 62.33% · 34 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 34 openings · below min since tracking started · 34 openings · below min -0.5% 69.3% 139.0% **Small sample.** 34 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f118bfb38f6993769279c?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f118bfb38f6993769279c?window=7d) | 20 | 51.97% ±86.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f118bfb38f6993769279c) | 34 | 62.33% ±66.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f118bfb38f6993769279c?window=all) | 34 | 62.33% ±66.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,712 2,852,458 BUX | 39.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $280 465,746 BUX | 10.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 11.0% | $144 239,204 BUX | 12.1% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $128 212,981 BUX | 10.8% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 11.0% | $107 177,912 BUX | 9.0% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 25.0% | $73.92 123,150 BUX | 14.2% | 10 | 8.5 | 1.18× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 34.0% | $14.27 23,773 BUX | 3.7% | 9 | 11.6 | 0.78× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f118bfb38f6993769279c) [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) Hidden $145 241,158 BUX $14.27 23,773 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:34 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) Hidden $145 241,158 BUX $73.92 123,150 BUX 0.51x 2026-11-11 01:34 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Orion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-orion-factory-new) Hidden $145 241,158 BUX $107 177,912 BUX 0.74x 2026-11-11 01:34 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $145 241,158 BUX $128 212,981 BUX 0.88x 2026-11-11 01:34 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) Hidden $145 241,158 BUX $73.92 123,150 BUX 0.51x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) Hidden $145 241,158 BUX $14.27 23,773 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) Hidden $145 241,158 BUX $14.27 23,773 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $145 241,158 BUX $73.92 123,150 BUX 0.51x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) Hidden $145 241,158 BUX $14.27 23,773 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:32 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Orion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-orion-factory-new) Hidden $145 241,158 BUX $107 177,912 BUX 0.74x 2026-11-11 01:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $145 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 3.0% covert 27.0% #d32ee6 11.0% classified 25.0% mil spec 34.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt