--- title: "Temporal Tides case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Temporal Tides ($41.78) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 58.11% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1194fb38f6993769286c rendered: 2026-11-12T15:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Temporal Tides](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1194fb38f6993769286c) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Temporal Tides A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1194fb38f6993769286c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1194fb38f6993769286c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1194fb38f6993769286c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1194fb38f6993769286c?window=all) Price · $41.78 · 69,600 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $37.60 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 58.11% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 63.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min -0.5% 79.5% 159.5% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1194fb38f6993769286c?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1194fb38f6993769286c?window=7d) | 4 | 58.40% ±100.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1194fb38f6993769286c) | 22 | 58.11% ±42.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f1194fb38f6993769286c?window=all) | 22 | 58.11% ±42.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $341 567,772 BUX | 9.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-silver-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $117 194,755 BUX | 15.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 15.0% | $65.05 108,373 BUX | 26.0% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 16.0% | $63.28 105,424 BUX | 26.9% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-titanium-bit-field-tested) | 20.0% | $18.96 31,587 BUX | 10.1% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 21.5% | $12.58 20,958 BUX | 7.2% | 8 | 4.7 | 1.69× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 21.5% | $9.15 15,243 BUX | 5.2% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.27× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f1194fb38f6993769286c) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $41.78 69,600 BUX $9.15 15,243 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-08 09:51 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $41.78 69,600 BUX $63.28 105,424 BUX 1.51x 2026-11-08 09:51 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) Hidden $41.78 69,600 BUX $12.58 20,958 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-08 09:51 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $41.78 69,600 BUX $12.58 20,958 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-08 09:51 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $41.78 69,600 BUX $63.28 105,424 BUX 1.51x 2026-11-05 15:43 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) Hidden $41.78 69,600 BUX $65.05 108,373 BUX 1.56x 2026-11-05 15:43 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $41.78 69,600 BUX $9.15 15,243 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-05 15:43 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) [user-a62de3](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-a62de3) $41.78 69,600 BUX $12.58 20,958 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-05 15:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $41.78 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 1.0% Mil Spec Grade 21.0% covert 15.0% Restricted 20.0% restricted 43.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt