--- title: "Arcane Brews case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Arcane Brews ($720.69) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 61.22% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f119dfb38f6993769295d rendered: 2026-11-12T13:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Arcane Brews](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f119dfb38f6993769295d) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Arcane Brews A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f119dfb38f6993769295d?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f119dfb38f6993769295d?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f119dfb38f6993769295d) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f119dfb38f6993769295d?window=all) Price · $720.69 · 1,200,664 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $648.62 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 61.22% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 75.5% 151.5% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f119dfb38f6993769295d?window=24h) | 4 | 61.22% ±89.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f119dfb38f6993769295d?window=7d) | 4 | 61.22% ±89.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f119dfb38f6993769295d) | 4 | 61.22% ±89.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f119dfb38f6993769295d?window=all) | 4 | 61.22% ±89.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Precious Stone of Amethyst (Gemstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-amethyst-gemstone) | 1 in 40 | $3,435 5,723,425 BUX | 13.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Precious Stone of Topaz (Quartz) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-topaz-quartz) | 1 in 22 | $2,504 4,171,892 BUX | 17.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Precious Stone of Emerald (Gemstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-emerald-gemstone) | 1 in 12 | $1,111 1,850,475 BUX | 14.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Precious Stone of Ruby (Gemstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-ruby-gemstone) | 15.0% | $764 1,272,000 BUX | 17.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Precious Stone of Citrine (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-citrine-quartz) | 15.5% | $394 657,000 BUX | 9.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Ruby-Infused Wine Goblet other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ruby-infused-wine-goblet) | 17.0% | $350 583,100 BUX | 9.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Precious Stone of Sapphire (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-sapphire-gemstone) | 37.0% | $326 542,500 BUX | 18.6% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.35× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Precious Stone of Ruby (Gemstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-ruby-gemstone) Hidden $721 1,200,664 BUX $764 1,272,000 BUX 1.06x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f119dfb38f6993769295d) [Ruby-Infused Wine Goblet other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ruby-infused-wine-goblet) Hidden $721 1,200,664 BUX $350 583,100 BUX 0.49x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [Precious Stone of Ruby (Gemstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-ruby-gemstone) Hidden $721 1,200,664 BUX $764 1,272,000 BUX 1.06x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [Precious Stone of Sapphire (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-sapphire-gemstone) Hidden $721 1,200,664 BUX $326 542,500 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [Precious Stone of Sapphire (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-sapphire-gemstone) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $721 1,200,664 BUX $326 542,500 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $721 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 47.5% Classified 52.5% best hit $764 (1.06x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt