--- title: "Forgotten Realms case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Forgotten Realms ($2.34) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 91.62% over 574 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11adfb38f69937692a85 rendered: 2026-11-12T13:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Forgotten Realms](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11adfb38f69937692a85) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Forgotten Realms A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11adfb38f69937692a85?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11adfb38f69937692a85?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11adfb38f69937692a85) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11adfb38f69937692a85?window=all) Price · $2.34 · 3,899 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2.11 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.62% · 574 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 37.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 63.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 91.08% ±8.19 276 openings 30 days · 91.62% ±5.68 574 openings since tracking started · 91.62% ±5.68 574 openings 49.5% 84.0% 118.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11adfb38f69937692a85?window=24h) | 16 | 84.06% ±34.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11adfb38f69937692a85?window=7d) | 276 | 91.08% ±8.19 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11adfb38f69937692a85) | 574 | 91.62% ±5.68 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11adfb38f69937692a85?window=all) | 574 | 91.62% ±5.68 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 604 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $12.13 20,208 BUX | 5.8% | 10 | 6.0 | 1.66× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $7.24 12,061 BUX | 8.6% | 13 | 15.1 | 0.86× | | [PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $4.36 7,263 BUX | 7.2% | 24 | 21.1 | 1.14× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-triarch-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $3.99 6,647 BUX | 8.5% | 30 | 27.2 | 1.10× | | [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $3.41 5,681 BUX | 10.5% | 35 | 39.3 | 0.89× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-field-tested) | 19.0% | $2.48 4,131 BUX | 22.4% | 100 | 114.8 | 0.87× | | [M249 \| Aztec (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-factory-new) | 28.0% | $1.47 2,449 BUX | 19.5% | 168 | 169.1 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-blast-from-the-past-factory-new) | 35.0% | $1.05 1,749 BUX | 17.4% | 224 | 211.4 | 1.06× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f11adfb38f69937692a85) [Souvenir Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-blast-from-the-past-factory-new) Hidden $2.34 3,899 BUX $1.05 1,749 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-12 10:17 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-blast-from-the-past-factory-new) [ALT-F4](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/ALT-F4) $2.34 3,899 BUX $1.05 1,749 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-12 10:17 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-blast-from-the-past-factory-new) [Le Shake](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Le%20Shake) $2.34 3,899 BUX $1.05 1,749 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-11 22:13 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Triarch (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-triarch-factory-new) [Lidthyggepågeden](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Lidthyggep%C3%A5geden) $2.34 3,899 BUX $3.99 6,647 BUX 1.70x 2026-11-11 22:13 UTC [M249 | Aztec (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-factory-new) Hidden $2.34 3,899 BUX $1.47 2,449 BUX 0.63x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) Hidden $2.34 3,899 BUX $7.24 12,061 BUX 3.09x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC [M249 | Aztec (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-factory-new) Hidden $2.34 3,899 BUX $1.47 2,449 BUX 0.63x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-blast-from-the-past-factory-new) [user54e6878a](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user54e6878a) $2.34 3,899 BUX $1.05 1,749 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-blast-from-the-past-factory-new) Hidden $2.34 3,899 BUX $1.05 1,749 BUX 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-field-tested) [Ludomanas](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ludomanas) $2.34 3,899 BUX $2.48 4,131 BUX 1.06x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $2.34 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 29.0% classified 2.5% Consumer Grade 22.5% Restricted 4.5% industrial 6.5% Mil Spec 35.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt