--- title: "Elixir Vault case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Elixir Vault ($750.88) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 98.55% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b1fb38f69937692ac2 rendered: 2026-11-12T13:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Elixir Vault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b1fb38f69937692ac2) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Elixir Vault A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b1fb38f69937692ac2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b1fb38f69937692ac2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b1fb38f69937692ac2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b1fb38f69937692ac2?window=all) Price · $750.88 · 1,250,969 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $675.79 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.55% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 118.3% 237.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b1fb38f69937692ac2?window=24h) | 4 | 98.55% ±137.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b1fb38f69937692ac2?window=7d) | 4 | 98.55% ±137.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b1fb38f69937692ac2) | 4 | 98.55% ±137.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b1fb38f69937692ac2?window=all) | 4 | 98.55% ±137.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Earring (Emerald) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/earring-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $25K 41,650,000 BUX | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Totem (Tourmaline) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/totem-tourmaline) | 1 in 333 | $10K 16,660,000 BUX | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/fountain-of-fortune-fluorite) | 1 in 31 | $2,700 4,498,200 BUX | 13.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Magic Wand (Uranium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-wand-uranium) | 1 in 19 | $1,600 2,665,600 BUX | 12.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Jewel of Jotunheim (Jade) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/jewel-of-jotunheim-jade) | 1 in 11 | $850 1,416,100 BUX | 11.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Ruby-Encrusted Dagger other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ruby-encrusted-dagger) | 13.5% | $770 1,282,820 BUX | 15.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Prism (Adamantium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-adamantium) | 15.0% | $720 1,200,000 BUX | 16.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Ruby-Infused Wine Goblet other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ruby-infused-wine-goblet) | 25.0% | $350 583,100 BUX | 12.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | | [Mystical Monolith (Moonstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mystical-monolith-moonstone) | 28.0% | $240 399,840 BUX | 9.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Magic Wand (Uranium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-wand-uranium) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $751 1,250,969 BUX $1,600 2,665,600 BUX 2.13x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [Ruby-Encrusted Dagger other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ruby-encrusted-dagger) Hidden $751 1,250,969 BUX $770 1,282,820 BUX 1.03x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f11b1fb38f69937692ac2) [Ruby-Encrusted Dagger other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ruby-encrusted-dagger) Hidden $751 1,250,969 BUX $770 1,282,820 BUX 1.03x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [Ruby-Infused Wine Goblet other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ruby-infused-wine-goblet) Hidden $751 1,250,969 BUX $350 583,100 BUX 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [Mystical Monolith (Moonstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mystical-monolith-moonstone) Hidden $751 1,250,969 BUX $240 399,840 BUX 0.32x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [Magic Wand (Uranium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-wand-uranium) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $751 1,250,969 BUX $1,600 2,665,600 BUX 2.13x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $751 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 0.4% Exceedingly Rare 26.3% Covert 73.3% best hit $1,600 (2.13x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt