--- title: "Skull Hazard case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Skull Hazard ($8.17) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 82.19% over 97 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b7fb38f69937692b3b rendered: 2026-11-12T13:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Skull Hazard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b7fb38f69937692b3b) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Skull Hazard A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b7fb38f69937692b3b?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b7fb38f69937692b3b?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b7fb38f69937692b3b) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b7fb38f69937692b3b?window=all) Price · $8.17 · 13,609 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $7.35 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.19% · 97 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 31.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 76 openings · below min 30 days · 97 openings · below min since tracking started · 97 openings · below min 69.5% 84.3% 99.0% **Small sample.** 97 openings and 30.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b7fb38f69937692b3b?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b7fb38f69937692b3b?window=7d) | 76 | 84.70% ±13.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b7fb38f69937692b3b) | 97 | 82.19% ±12.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11b7fb38f69937692b3b?window=all) | 97 | 82.19% ±12.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 97 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Silver Serpent other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-serpent) | 1 in 22 | $21.00 34,986 BUX | 12.9% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.92× | | [Dagger (Diamond) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dagger-diamond) | 1 in 15 | $15.50 25,823 BUX | 13.7% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.48× | | [Sarcophagus (Silver) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sarcophagus-silver) | 1 in 12 | $13.40 22,324 BUX | 15.5% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× | | [Glittering Glove (Aluminium) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glittering-glove-aluminium) | 11.5% | $9.50 15,827 BUX | 14.9% | 15 | 11.2 | 1.34× | | [Soldier Toy (Lead) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/soldier-toy-lead) | 14.0% | $7.00 11,662 BUX | 13.3% | 12 | 13.6 | 0.88× | | [Statuette (Iron) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/statuette-iron) | 15.0% | $6.25 10,413 BUX | 12.8% | 15 | 14.5 | 1.03× | | [Amulet (Iron) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-iron) | 18.0% | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 11.0% | 19 | 17.5 | 1.09× | | [Ornament (Obsidian) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ornament-obsidian) | 22.0% | $2.00 3,332 BUX | 6.0% | 24 | 21.3 | 1.12× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f11b7fb38f69937692b3b) [Amulet (Iron) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-iron) Hidden $8.17 13,609 BUX $4.50 7,497 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [Ornament (Obsidian) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ornament-obsidian) Hidden $8.17 13,609 BUX $2.00 3,332 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [Statuette (Iron) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/statuette-iron) Hidden $8.17 13,609 BUX $6.25 10,413 BUX 0.77x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [Amulet (Iron) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-iron) [terney](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/terney) $8.17 13,609 BUX $4.50 7,497 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [Glittering Glove (Aluminium) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glittering-glove-aluminium) Hidden $8.17 13,609 BUX $9.50 15,827 BUX 1.16x 2026-11-09 21:35 UTC [Statuette (Iron) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/statuette-iron) Hidden $8.17 13,609 BUX $6.25 10,413 BUX 0.77x 2026-11-09 21:35 UTC [Statuette (Iron) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/statuette-iron) Hidden $8.17 13,609 BUX $6.25 10,413 BUX 0.77x 2026-11-09 21:35 UTC [Statuette (Iron) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/statuette-iron) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $8.17 13,609 BUX $6.25 10,413 BUX 0.77x 2026-11-09 21:35 UTC [Soldier Toy (Lead) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/soldier-toy-lead) Hidden $8.17 13,609 BUX $7.00 11,662 BUX 0.86x 2026-11-08 18:04 UTC [Ornament (Obsidian) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ornament-obsidian) Hidden $8.17 13,609 BUX $2.00 3,332 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-08 18:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $8.17 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mil Spec Grade 25.0% Industrial Grade 41.5% Classified 11.5% Consumer Grade 22.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt