--- title: "Historic Havens case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Historic Havens ($4.92) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.37% over 203 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11bafb38f69937692b74 rendered: 2026-11-12T14:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Historic Havens](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11bafb38f69937692b74) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Historic Havens A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11bafb38f69937692b74?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11bafb38f69937692b74?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11bafb38f69937692b74) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11bafb38f69937692b74?window=all) Price · $4.92 · 8,194 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $4.43 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.37% · 203 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 40.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 93.44% ±11.17 157 openings 30 days · 89.37% ±9.83 203 openings since tracking started · 89.37% ±9.83 203 openings 8.5% 66.3% 124.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11bafb38f69937692b74?window=24h) | 6 | 66.08% ±57.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11bafb38f69937692b74?window=7d) | 157 | 93.44% ±11.2 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11bafb38f69937692b74) | 203 | 89.37% ±9.83 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11bafb38f69937692b74?window=all) | 203 | 89.37% ±9.83 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 211 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Heliodor Helm other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/heliodor-helm) | 1 in 143 | $27.00 44,982 BUX | 4.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [Mystic Mosaic (Manganese) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mystic-mosaic-manganese) | 1 in 48 | $19.00 31,654 BUX | 9.0% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.35× | | [Golden Garnet Grail other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/golden-garnet-grail) | 1 in 24 | $12.00 19,992 BUX | 11.4% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.02× | | [Statuette (Iron) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/statuette-iron) | 1 in 14 | $6.25 10,413 BUX | 9.9% | 12 | 14.8 | 0.81× | | [Pyramid (Pyrite) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pyramid-pyrite) | 10.5% | $5.00 8,330 BUX | 11.9% | 28 | 22.2 | 1.26× | | [Memento (Moonstone) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/memento-moonstone) | 15.5% | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 15.8% | 31 | 32.7 | 0.95× | | [Pendant (Pyrite) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-pyrite) | 35.0% | $3.00 4,998 BUX | 23.7% | 77 | 73.8 | 1.04× | | [Bracelet (Brass) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-brass) | 25.0% | $2.50 4,165 BUX | 14.1% | 48 | 52.8 | 0.91× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f11bafb38f69937692b74) [Pendant (Pyrite) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-pyrite) Hidden $4.92 8,194 BUX $3.00 4,998 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-12 00:01 UTC [Bracelet (Brass) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-brass) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $4.92 8,194 BUX $2.50 4,165 BUX 0.51x 2026-11-12 00:01 UTC [Pendant (Pyrite) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-pyrite) Hidden $4.92 8,194 BUX $3.00 4,998 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [Pendant (Pyrite) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-pyrite) Hidden $4.92 8,194 BUX $3.00 4,998 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [Pendant (Pyrite) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-pyrite) Hidden $4.92 8,194 BUX $3.00 4,998 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [Pyramid (Pyrite) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pyramid-pyrite) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $4.92 8,194 BUX $5.00 8,330 BUX 1.02x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [Bracelet (Brass) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-brass) Hidden $4.92 8,194 BUX $2.50 4,165 BUX 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:05 UTC [Pyramid (Pyrite) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pyramid-pyrite) [Štozaxuinia](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/%C5%A0tozaxuinia) $4.92 8,194 BUX $5.00 8,330 BUX 1.02x 2026-11-11 12:05 UTC [Memento (Moonstone) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/memento-moonstone) Hidden $4.92 8,194 BUX $4.50 7,497 BUX 0.91x 2026-11-10 22:25 UTC [Pendant (Pyrite) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pendant-pyrite) Hidden $4.92 8,194 BUX $3.00 4,998 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-10 22:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $4.92 | 90.01% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Consumer Grade 16.2% Mil Spec Grade 12.6% Industrial Grade 71.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt