--- title: "Rustic Rebelion case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Rustic Rebelion ($1.60) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.02% from 8 items with odds, observed 94.88% over 1,197 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11befb38f69937692ba8 rendered: 2026-11-12T13:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Rustic Rebelion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11befb38f69937692ba8) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Rustic Rebelion A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11befb38f69937692ba8?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11befb38f69937692ba8?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11befb38f69937692ba8) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11befb38f69937692ba8?window=all) Price · $1.60 · 2,671 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.02% · EV $1.44 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.88% · 1,197 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 105.05% ±19.29 122 openings 7 days · 97.61% ±8.22 671 openings 30 days · 94.88% ±6.16 1,197 openings since tracking started · 94.88% ±6.16 1,197 openings 85.0% 105.0% 125.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11befb38f69937692ba8?window=24h) | 122 | 105.05% ±19.3 | +1.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11befb38f69937692ba8?window=7d) | 671 | 97.61% ±8.22 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11befb38f69937692ba8) | 1,197 | 94.88% ±6.16 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11befb38f69937692ba8?window=all) | 1,197 | 94.88% ±6.16 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,279 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Knuckles (Brass) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/knuckles-brass) | 1 in 125 | $12.00 19,992 BUX | 6.7% | 13 | 10.2 | 1.27× | | [Bronze-Bound Bookend other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-bound-bookend) | 1 in 32 | $7.00 11,662 BUX | 15.0% | 43 | 39.6 | 1.08× | | [Brass Bauble other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/brass-bauble) | 1 in 17 | $4.00 6,664 BUX | 16.6% | 84 | 76.7 | 1.09× | | [Bracelet (Brass) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-brass) | 11.0% | $2.50 4,165 BUX | 19.1% | 152 | 140.7 | 1.08× | | [Amber Amulet other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amber-amulet) | 15.1% | $1.90 3,165 BUX | 19.9% | 194 | 193.1 | 1.00× | | [Bronze Ornament other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-ornament) | 17.0% | $1.10 1,833 BUX | 13.0% | 205 | 217.4 | 0.94× | | [Almost Amber Anklet (Amber) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/almost-amber-anklet-amber) | 21.0% | $0.45 750 BUX | 6.6% | 240 | 268.6 | 0.89× | | [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) | 26.0% | $0.18 300 BUX | 3.2% | 348 | 332.5 | 1.05× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f11befb38f69937692ba8) [Bronze Ornament other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-ornament) Hidden $1.60 2,671 BUX $1.10 1,833 BUX 0.69x 2026-11-12 13:07 UTC [Bracelet (Brass) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-brass) Hidden $1.60 2,671 BUX $2.50 4,165 BUX 1.56x 2026-11-12 13:07 UTC [Bracelet (Brass) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-brass) Hidden $1.60 2,671 BUX $2.50 4,165 BUX 1.56x 2026-11-12 13:07 UTC [Brass Bauble other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/brass-bauble) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $1.60 2,671 BUX $4.00 6,664 BUX 2.49x 2026-11-12 13:07 UTC [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) Hidden $1.60 2,671 BUX $0.18 300 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-12 13:05 UTC [Bracelet (Brass) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-brass) Hidden $1.60 2,671 BUX $2.50 4,165 BUX 1.56x 2026-11-12 13:05 UTC [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) Hidden $1.60 2,671 BUX $0.18 300 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-12 13:05 UTC [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $1.60 2,671 BUX $0.18 300 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-12 13:05 UTC [Bronze Ornament other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-ornament) [Le Shake](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Le%20Shake) $1.60 2,671 BUX $1.10 1,833 BUX 0.69x 2026-11-11 22:12 UTC [Amber Amulet other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amber-amulet) [Lidthyggepågeden](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Lidthyggep%C3%A5geden) $1.60 2,671 BUX $1.90 3,165 BUX 1.18x 2026-11-11 22:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $1.60 | 90.02% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 0.8% Mil Spec Grade 9.1% Industrial Grade 28.0% Consumer Grade 62.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.02 on average: an expected loss of $9.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt