--- title: "Eclipse Expedition case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Eclipse Expedition ($0.98) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 9 items with odds, observed 74.58% over 1,434 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c2fb38f69937692be5 rendered: 2026-11-12T12:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Eclipse Expedition](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c2fb38f69937692be5) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Eclipse Expedition A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c2fb38f69937692be5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c2fb38f69937692be5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c2fb38f69937692be5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c2fb38f69937692be5?window=all) Price · $0.98 · 1,637 BUX Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $0.88 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.58% · 1,434 openings, odds method Variance · 33.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 68 openings · below min 7 days · 77.64% ±34.61 1,057 openings 30 days · 74.58% ±29.71 1,434 openings since tracking started · 74.58% ±29.71 1,434 openings -0.5% 99.0% 198.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c2fb38f69937692be5?window=24h) | 68 | 61.20% ±136.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c2fb38f69937692be5?window=7d) | 1,057 | 77.64% ±34.6 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c2fb38f69937692be5) | 1,434 | 74.58% ±29.7 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c2fb38f69937692be5?window=all) | 1,434 | 74.58% ±29.7 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,550 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Oracle Orb (Obsidian) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/oracle-orb-obsidian) | 1 in 1,000 | $165 274,890 BUX | 18.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.65× | | [Obelisk (Obsidian) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-obsidian) | 1 in 250 | $34.00 56,644 BUX | 15.4% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.48× | | [Knot (Nickel) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/knot-nickel) | 1 in 29 | $2.10 3,499 BUX | 8.3% | 50 | 54.3 | 0.92× | | [Ornament (Obsidian) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ornament-obsidian) | 1 in 18 | $2.00 3,332 BUX | 12.4% | 68 | 85.3 | 0.80× | | [Orb (Onyx) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/orb-onyx) | 1 in 12 | $1.60 2,666 BUX | 15.4% | 122 | 131.8 | 0.93× | | [Nugget (Nickel) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nugget-nickel) | 12.0% | $0.80 1,333 BUX | 10.9% | 196 | 186.0 | 1.05× | | [Moonstone Marble other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/moonstone-marble) | 15.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 11.9% | 227 | 232.5 | 0.98× | | [Aluminum Foil Hat other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aluminum-foil-hat) | 25.0% | $0.13 217 BUX | 3.7% | 429 | 387.5 | 1.11× | | [Steel Stud other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/steel-stud) | 30.0% | $0.10 167 BUX | 3.4% | 454 | 465.0 | 0.98× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Oracle Orb (Obsidian) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/oracle-orb-obsidian) [str1ke](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/str1ke) $0.98 1,637 BUX $165 274,890 BUX 167.9x 2026-11-07 20:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f11c2fb38f69937692be5) [Aluminum Foil Hat other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aluminum-foil-hat) Hidden $0.98 1,637 BUX $0.13 217 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [Moonstone Marble other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/moonstone-marble) Hidden $0.98 1,637 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.71x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [Aluminum Foil Hat other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aluminum-foil-hat) Hidden $0.98 1,637 BUX $0.13 217 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [Steel Stud other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/steel-stud) [user-dedb78](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-dedb78) $0.98 1,637 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [Orb (Onyx) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/orb-onyx) Hidden $0.98 1,637 BUX $1.60 2,666 BUX 1.63x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [Nugget (Nickel) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nugget-nickel) Hidden $0.98 1,637 BUX $0.80 1,333 BUX 0.81x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [Steel Stud other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/steel-stud) Hidden $0.98 1,637 BUX $0.10 167 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [Nugget (Nickel) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nugget-nickel) [user-dedb78](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-dedb78) $0.98 1,637 BUX $0.80 1,333 BUX 0.81x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [Aluminum Foil Hat other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aluminum-foil-hat) Hidden $0.98 1,637 BUX $0.13 217 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [Nugget (Nickel) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nugget-nickel) Hidden $0.98 1,637 BUX $0.80 1,333 BUX 0.81x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $0.98 | 89.98% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 0.1% Industrial Grade 12.4% Mil Spec Grade 3.5% Consumer Grade 84.0% best hit $165 (167.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt