--- title: "Obscured Truths case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Obscured Truths ($1.72) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 9 items with odds, observed 142.04% over 807 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c5fb38f69937692c2c rendered: 2026-11-12T12:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Obscured Truths](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c5fb38f69937692c2c) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Obscured Truths A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c5fb38f69937692c2c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c5fb38f69937692c2c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c5fb38f69937692c2c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c5fb38f69937692c2c?window=all) Price · $1.72 · 2,869 BUX Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $1.55 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 142.04% · 807 openings, odds method Variance · 48.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 197.32% ±108.88 158 openings 7 days · 182.80% ±58.90 540 openings 30 days · 142.04% ±48.18 807 openings since tracking started · 142.04% ±48.18 807 openings 88.0% 197.5% 307.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.98% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (93.86% – 190.22%, 807 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c5fb38f69937692c2c?window=24h) | 158 | 197.32% ±108.9 | +1.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c5fb38f69937692c2c?window=7d) | 540 | 182.80% ±58.9 | +3.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c5fb38f69937692c2c) | 807 | 142.04% ±48.2 | +2.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c5fb38f69937692c2c?window=all) | 807 | 142.04% ±48.2 | +2.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 842 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) | 1 in 1,000 | $375 624,750 BUX | 24.2% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [Amulet (Amethyst) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-amethyst) | 1 in 111 | $22.00 36,652 BUX | 12.8% | 3 | 7.6 | 0.40× | | [Obelisk (Onyx) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-onyx) | 1 in 33 | $5.50 9,163 BUX | 10.6% | 17 | 25.3 | 0.67× | | [Ornament (Obsidian) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ornament-obsidian) | 1 in 13 | $2.00 3,332 BUX | 10.3% | 87 | 67.4 | 1.29× | | [Orb (Onyx) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/orb-onyx) | 11.0% | $1.60 2,666 BUX | 11.4% | 82 | 92.6 | 0.89× | | [Medallion (Manganese) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/medallion-manganese) | 13.0% | $1.50 2,499 BUX | 12.6% | 116 | 109.5 | 1.06× | | [Bronze Ornament other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-ornament) | 17.0% | $1.10 1,833 BUX | 12.1% | 155 | 143.1 | 1.08× | | [Ring (Tin) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ring-tin) | 22.0% | $0.22 367 BUX | 3.1% | 173 | 185.2 | 0.93× | | [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) | 25.0% | $0.18 300 BUX | 2.9% | 206 | 210.5 | 0.98× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) [tenshi](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/tenshi) $1.72 2,869 BUX $375 624,750 BUX 217.8x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) Hidden $1.72 2,869 BUX $375 624,750 BUX 217.8x 2026-11-09 21:26 UTC [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) Hidden $1.72 2,869 BUX $375 624,750 BUX 217.8x 2026-11-07 03:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f11c5fb38f69937692c2c) [Bronze Ornament other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-ornament) Hidden $1.72 2,869 BUX $1.10 1,833 BUX 0.64x 2026-11-12 10:38 UTC [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) Hidden $1.72 2,869 BUX $0.18 300 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-12 10:38 UTC [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) Hidden $1.72 2,869 BUX $0.18 300 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-12 10:38 UTC [Plank of wood (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/plank-of-wood-wood) Hidden $1.72 2,869 BUX $0.18 300 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-12 10:38 UTC [Ring (Tin) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ring-tin) Hidden $1.72 2,869 BUX $0.22 367 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-12 00:22 UTC [Orb (Onyx) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/orb-onyx) Hidden $1.72 2,869 BUX $1.60 2,666 BUX 0.93x 2026-11-12 00:22 UTC [Orb (Onyx) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/orb-onyx) Hidden $1.72 2,869 BUX $1.60 2,666 BUX 0.93x 2026-11-12 00:22 UTC [Orb (Onyx) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/orb-onyx) Hidden $1.72 2,869 BUX $1.60 2,666 BUX 0.93x 2026-11-12 00:22 UTC [Ornament (Obsidian) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ornament-obsidian) Hidden $1.72 2,869 BUX $2.00 3,332 BUX 1.16x 2026-11-11 23:35 UTC [Medallion (Manganese) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/medallion-manganese) Hidden $1.72 2,869 BUX $1.50 2,499 BUX 0.87x 2026-11-11 23:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $1.72 | 89.98% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mil Spec Grade 0.1% Consumer Grade 79.9% Industrial Grade 20.0% best hit $375 (217.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt