--- title: "Defiant Strike case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Defiant Strike ($3.51) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 8 items with odds, observed 85.48% over 302 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c8fb38f69937692c67 rendered: 2026-11-12T11:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Defiant Strike](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c8fb38f69937692c67) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Defiant Strike A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c8fb38f69937692c67?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c8fb38f69937692c67?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c8fb38f69937692c67) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c8fb38f69937692c67?window=all) Price · $3.51 · 5,850 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $3.16 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.48% · 302 openings, odds method Variance · 10.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 83.25% ±45.08 199 openings 30 days · 85.48% ±36.59 302 openings since tracking started · 85.48% ±36.59 302 openings -0.5% 193.0% 386.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c8fb38f69937692c67?window=24h) | 6 | 126.25% ±259.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c8fb38f69937692c67?window=7d) | 199 | 83.25% ±45.1 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c8fb38f69937692c67) | 302 | 85.48% ±36.6 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11c8fb38f69937692c67?window=all) | 302 | 85.48% ±36.6 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 326 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Ruby-Infused Wine Goblet other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ruby-infused-wine-goblet) | 1 in 1,000 | $350 583,100 BUX | 11.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Ring (Ruby) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ring-ruby) | 1 in 33 | $15.00 24,990 BUX | 14.2% | 11 | 9.8 | 1.12× | | [Runestone (Ruby) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/runestone-ruby) | 1 in 14 | $7.00 11,662 BUX | 15.5% | 27 | 22.8 | 1.18× | | [Goblet (Garnet) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/goblet-garnet) | 1 in 12 | $6.00 9,996 BUX | 15.9% | 27 | 27.4 | 0.99× | | [Amulet (Iron) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-iron) | 12.0% | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 17.1% | 37 | 39.1 | 0.95× | | [Bronze Bloom other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-bloom) | 18.5% | $2.70 4,498 BUX | 15.8% | 70 | 60.3 | 1.16× | | [Bronze Ornament other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-ornament) | 25.0% | $1.10 1,833 BUX | 8.7% | 59 | 81.5 | 0.72× | | [Copper Coin other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/copper-coin) | 26.0% | $0.20 333 BUX | 1.6% | 95 | 84.8 | 1.12× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f11c8fb38f69937692c67) [Bronze Bloom other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-bloom) Hidden $3.51 5,850 BUX $2.70 4,498 BUX 0.77x 2026-11-12 10:17 UTC [Bronze Bloom other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-bloom) [ALT-F4](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/ALT-F4) $3.51 5,850 BUX $2.70 4,498 BUX 0.77x 2026-11-12 10:17 UTC [Bronze Bloom other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-bloom) Hidden $3.51 5,850 BUX $2.70 4,498 BUX 0.77x 2026-11-11 23:27 UTC [Amulet (Iron) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-iron) Hidden $3.51 5,850 BUX $4.50 7,497 BUX 1.28x 2026-11-11 23:27 UTC [Runestone (Ruby) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/runestone-ruby) Hidden $3.51 5,850 BUX $7.00 11,662 BUX 1.99x 2026-11-11 23:27 UTC [Runestone (Ruby) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/runestone-ruby) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $3.51 5,850 BUX $7.00 11,662 BUX 1.99x 2026-11-11 23:27 UTC [Bronze Bloom other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-bloom) Hidden $3.51 5,850 BUX $2.70 4,498 BUX 0.77x 2026-11-11 11:57 UTC [Amulet (Iron) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-iron) [Štozaxuinia](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/%C5%A0tozaxuinia) $3.51 5,850 BUX $4.50 7,497 BUX 1.28x 2026-11-11 11:57 UTC [Goblet (Garnet) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/goblet-garnet) Hidden $3.51 5,850 BUX $6.00 9,996 BUX 1.71x 2026-11-10 22:19 UTC [Copper Coin other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/copper-coin) Hidden $3.51 5,850 BUX $0.20 333 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-10 22:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $3.51 | 90.01% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.1% Mil Spec Grade 11.4% Industrial Grade 88.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt