--- title: "Covenant Chronicles case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Covenant Chronicles ($38.86) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 81.30% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11cbfb38f69937692ca8 rendered: 2026-11-12T10:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Covenant Chronicles](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11cbfb38f69937692ca8) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Covenant Chronicles A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11cbfb38f69937692ca8?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11cbfb38f69937692ca8?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11cbfb38f69937692ca8) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11cbfb38f69937692ca8?window=all) Price · $38.86 · 64,733 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $34.97 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.30% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 39.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min 5.5% 87.3% 169.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11cbfb38f69937692ca8?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11cbfb38f69937692ca8?window=7d) | 4 | 87.26% ±81.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11cbfb38f69937692ca8) | 12 | 81.30% ±46.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11cbfb38f69937692ca8?window=all) | 12 | 81.30% ±46.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $814 1,355,390 BUX | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $88.15 146,857 BUX | 11.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $72.51 120,801 BUX | 16.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $50.67 84,416 BUX | 17.4% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Acheron (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-acheron-factory-new) | 15.0% | $40.29 67,123 BUX | 17.3% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 17.4% | $29.98 49,946 BUX | 14.9% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.92× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $19.04 31,720 BUX | 10.9% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 23.0% | $14.09 23,473 BUX | 9.3% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f11cbfb38f69937692ca8) [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-factory-new) Hidden $38.86 64,733 BUX $14.09 23,473 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-09 00:01 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.86 64,733 BUX $29.98 49,946 BUX 0.77x 2026-11-09 00:01 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $38.86 64,733 BUX $72.51 120,801 BUX 1.87x 2026-11-09 00:01 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) [Ilol2k](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ilol2k) $38.86 64,733 BUX $19.04 31,720 BUX 0.49x 2026-11-09 00:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $38.86 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 17.5% mil spec 19.5% covert knife 8.0% covert 12.0% restricted 43.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt