--- title: "Urban Uprising case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Urban Uprising ($1.97) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 6 items with odds, observed 92.57% over 706 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11d4fb38f69937692d34 rendered: 2026-11-12T13:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Urban Uprising](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11d4fb38f69937692d34) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Urban Uprising A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11d4fb38f69937692d34?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11d4fb38f69937692d34?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11d4fb38f69937692d34) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11d4fb38f69937692d34?window=all) Price · $1.97 · 3,284 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $1.77 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.57% · 706 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 86.53% ±8.85 422 openings 30 days · 92.57% ±6.84 706 openings since tracking started · 92.57% ±6.84 706 openings 47.0% 90.5% 134.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11d4fb38f69937692d34?window=24h) | 18 | 90.27% ±42.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11d4fb38f69937692d34?window=7d) | 422 | 86.53% ±8.85 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11d4fb38f69937692d34) | 706 | 92.57% ±6.84 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11d4fb38f69937692d34?window=all) | 706 | 92.57% ±6.84 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 744 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glittering Glove (Aluminium) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glittering-glove-aluminium) | 1 in 24 | $9.50 15,827 BUX | 22.0% | 35 | 30.5 | 1.15× | | [Titanium Teardrop other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/titanium-teardrop) | 10.0% | $3.75 6,248 BUX | 21.1% | 81 | 74.4 | 1.09× | | [Tin-Tastic Spoon other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tin-tastic-spoon) | 15.9% | $1.90 3,165 BUX | 17.0% | 105 | 118.3 | 0.89× | | [Medallion (Manganese) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/medallion-manganese) | 22.0% | $1.50 2,499 BUX | 18.6% | 151 | 163.7 | 0.92× | | [Sheriff Badge (Tin) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sheriff-badge-tin) | 23.0% | $0.99 1,649 BUX | 12.8% | 186 | 171.1 | 1.09× | | [Locket (Zinc) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/locket-zinc) | 25.0% | $0.60 1,000 BUX | 8.5% | 186 | 186.0 | 1.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f11d4fb38f69937692d34) [Locket (Zinc) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/locket-zinc) Hidden $1.97 3,284 BUX $0.60 1,000 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-12 07:50 UTC [Medallion (Manganese) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/medallion-manganese) Hidden $1.97 3,284 BUX $1.50 2,499 BUX 0.76x 2026-11-12 07:50 UTC [Locket (Zinc) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/locket-zinc) Hidden $1.97 3,284 BUX $0.60 1,000 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-12 07:50 UTC [Medallion (Manganese) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/medallion-manganese) [user-1e2e3e](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-1e2e3e) $1.97 3,284 BUX $1.50 2,499 BUX 0.76x 2026-11-12 07:50 UTC [Sheriff Badge (Tin) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sheriff-badge-tin) Hidden $1.97 3,284 BUX $0.99 1,649 BUX 0.50x 2026-11-12 00:22 UTC [Tin-Tastic Spoon other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tin-tastic-spoon) Hidden $1.97 3,284 BUX $1.90 3,165 BUX 0.96x 2026-11-12 00:22 UTC [Locket (Zinc) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/locket-zinc) Hidden $1.97 3,284 BUX $0.60 1,000 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-12 00:22 UTC [Tin-Tastic Spoon other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tin-tastic-spoon) Hidden $1.97 3,284 BUX $1.90 3,165 BUX 0.96x 2026-11-12 00:22 UTC [Medallion (Manganese) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/medallion-manganese) [Le Shake](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Le%20Shake) $1.97 3,284 BUX $1.50 2,499 BUX 0.76x 2026-11-11 22:12 UTC [Locket (Zinc) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/locket-zinc) [Lidthyggepågeden](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Lidthyggep%C3%A5geden) $1.97 3,284 BUX $0.60 1,000 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-11 22:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $1.97 | 90.01% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 4.1% Restricted 10.0% Industrial Grade 15.9% Consumer Grade 70.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt