--- title: "Sovereign Might case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sovereign Might ($455.87) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 53.91% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11eafb38f69937692e24 rendered: 2026-11-12T14:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Sovereign Might](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11eafb38f69937692e24) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Sovereign Might A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11eafb38f69937692e24?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11eafb38f69937692e24?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11eafb38f69937692e24) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11eafb38f69937692e24?window=all) Price · $455.87 · 759,482 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $410.28 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 53.91% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 37.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 63.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min 1.5% 54.0% 106.5% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11eafb38f69937692e24?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11eafb38f69937692e24?window=7d) | 4 | 53.91% ±51.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11eafb38f69937692e24) | 4 | 53.91% ±51.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11eafb38f69937692e24?window=all) | 4 | 53.91% ±51.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Miniature Mythril Shield (Mythril) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/miniature-mythril-shield-mythril) | 1 in 33 | $999 1,664,334 BUX | 7.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Precious Stone of Amethyst (Gemstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-amethyst-gemstone) | 1 in 25 | $940 1,566,040 BUX | 9.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Prism (Adamantium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-adamantium) | 1 in 20 | $720 1,200,000 BUX | 8.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Coin (Gold) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-gold) | 10.0% | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 15.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Labyrinth (Lapis Lazuli) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/labyrinth-lapis-lazuli) | 15.0% | $537 894,642 BUX | 19.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Palladium Palace other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/palladium-palace) | 16.0% | $445 741,370 BUX | 17.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Mystical Monolith (Moonstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mystical-monolith-moonstone) | 22.0% | $240 399,840 BUX | 12.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Tiny tiara (Diamond) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tiny-tiara-diamond) | 25.0% | $149 248,234 BUX | 9.1% | 2 | 1.0 | 2.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f11eafb38f69937692e24) [Tiny tiara (Diamond) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tiny-tiara-diamond) Hidden $456 759,482 BUX $149 248,234 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Tiny tiara (Diamond) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tiny-tiara-diamond) Hidden $456 759,482 BUX $149 248,234 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Mystical Monolith (Moonstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mystical-monolith-moonstone) Hidden $456 759,482 BUX $240 399,840 BUX 0.53x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Palladium Palace other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/palladium-palace) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $456 759,482 BUX $445 741,370 BUX 0.98x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $456 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 28.0% Covert 57.0% Restricted 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt