--- title: "Stellar Saga case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Stellar Saga ($395.17) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 51.24% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11edfb38f69937692e58 rendered: 2026-11-12T12:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Stellar Saga](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11edfb38f69937692e58) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Stellar Saga A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11edfb38f69937692e58?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11edfb38f69937692e58?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11edfb38f69937692e58) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11edfb38f69937692e58?window=all) Price · $395.17 · 658,348 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $355.65 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 51.24% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 90.0% 180.5% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11edfb38f69937692e58?window=24h) | 4 | 51.24% ±128.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11edfb38f69937692e58?window=7d) | 4 | 51.24% ±128.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11edfb38f69937692e58) | 4 | 51.24% ±128.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/673f11edfb38f69937692e58?window=all) | 4 | 51.24% ±128.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Crystal From An Alien Planet (Lithium) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/crystal-from-an-alien-planet-lithium) | 1 in 100 | $5,000 8,330,000 BUX | 14.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/halo-of-hyperion-heliodor) | 1 in 14 | $1,000 1,666,000 BUX | 19.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Astral Amulet (Alexandrite) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/astral-amulet-alexandrite) | 17.0% | $450 749,700 BUX | 21.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) | 21.0% | $375 624,750 BUX | 22.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Oracle Orb (Obsidian) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/oracle-orb-obsidian) | 25.0% | $165 274,890 BUX | 11.6% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | | [Sunburst Scepter (Sapphire) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sunburst-scepter-sapphire) | 29.0% | $135 224,910 BUX | 11.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.72× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=673f11edfb38f69937692e58) [Oracle Orb (Obsidian) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/oracle-orb-obsidian) Hidden $395 658,348 BUX $165 274,890 BUX 0.42x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) Hidden $395 658,348 BUX $375 624,750 BUX 0.95x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Sunburst Scepter (Sapphire) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sunburst-scepter-sapphire) Hidden $395 658,348 BUX $135 224,910 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Sunburst Scepter (Sapphire) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sunburst-scepter-sapphire) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $395 658,348 BUX $135 224,910 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $395 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Special 8.0% Restricted 42.0% Mil Spec Grade 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt